Falls Brings Some Beautiful Weather – Saturday 8:45 a.m.
September 22, 2012 Leave a comment
Once again this morning, a weak surface high pressure area stretches across the Southeast ahead of our approaching cold front. Overall moisture ahead of the front will be shallow so we do not expect much in the way of significant precipitation. It has a lot of dry air to overcome. Only very isolated showers across the north/northeast today along and ahead of the front, with maybe a little orographic aide and a few weak disturbances rotating around the base of the upper trough centered just north of the Great Lakes.
One more mild day is expected today as we nudge up a little bit higher with not much in the way of pre-frontal clouds initially to stop the warm up. After the front moves through a few post-frontal clouds, but no rain expected for tonight. With tight surface gradients and northerly flow around the main high over the central plains. Sounding should dry out quickly tonight behind the front. Enough cold air advection should help cool temperatures down significantly for tonight compared to now to overcome the winds. Northerly winds should stay up during the day Sunday with still increased gradients as the ridge slides southeast toward the mid Mississippi River Valley. Winds should begin to relax by Sunday night into Monday as the ridge pushes further southeast toward Tennessee/Kentucky.
As we move into Tuesday on through the remainder of the forecast the ridge nudges toward the Atlantic seaboard with the weather pattern looking very much like the latter part of this week in the low levels with easterly flow around the base of the ridge. In the upper levels, the difference is that northwest flow and cold air advection gets cut off as the upper ridge weakens by Tuesday and an upper shortwave digs in the four corners region flattening the flow over the Southeast and weakening it considerably. So our air mass should slowly moderate a few degrees each day through Thursday, may get a little more moisture return for the latter part of next week to get more cloud development during the day, but not much focus for precipitation, until maybe by next weekend. However, that is still a way off.