Rain Then Cooler Temps in the Week Ahead – Saturday 11:05 a.m.
September 15, 2012 1 Comment
Near normal temperatures and mostly dry weather today. Cannot rule out an isolated shower but nothing significant. Sunday looks like a transitionary day as better moisture begins to move in ahead of a shortwave trough that will approach from the west. A few scattered showers are possible Sunday but there are better rain chances Sunday night and especially Monday. The southern stream shortwave will push a surface system through the Deep South on Monday ahead of a much more substantial trough that will dig across the eastern U.S. bringing in cooler weather for the work week.
At this point, Monday looks like a wash-out. We can expect around 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain with locally higher amounts. Thunderstorms are questionable due to the uncertainty of the surface low track and think the best chance for any widespread thunder will be in the southeastern half of the area. Also worth noting, the GFS is a little bit quicker to dig in the main trough and push the heavier rainfall out than either the ECMWF or CMC. The NAM lies somewhere in-between. A slower moving system would mean potentially higher rainfall totals. However, by Tuesday evening all the models have the drier Canadian air in place with clearing skies. The rest of the week will have a distinct autumn feel.