Nice Start to the Weekend...Rain Ahead! Thursday Evening Forecast Discussion - 4:40pm Update

Good Thursday afternoon to you! Yet another day of nice weather and temperatures below average. As of 4pm, most spots across west and central Alabama were in the lower 80s. As the sun sets this evening, look for a gradual cool-down tonight. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s after 7pm and lower 70s by 10pm tonight. Skies will become mostly clear through the night, with no rain in the forecast through the night.

We’re watching the southeast progression of a weakening cold front at this hour. The front is well northwest of Alabama, but as it gets closer to the area, we’ll notice an increase in clouds over the weekend. The cold front will pass north of Alabama, so the better rain chances will stay to our north. While I can’t rule out a stray shower on Friday or Saturday, 95% of Alabama will remain rain-free. The local high school football games should go without any weather issues. Temperatures will reach the middle 80s on Friday, with a partly sunny sky. As for the 7pm kickoff for the local west and central Alabama high school football games, temperatures will settle down into the upper 70s.

Saturday is looking like the best day out of the entire weekend. There’s a chance of a passing shower after lunch, but the risk of rain is very low on Saturday. Your outdoor events will likely go through just fine. Highs will reach the middle 80s on Saturday. Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will feature rain at times. An upper air disturbance will arrive in western Alabama Sunday afternoon. Rain and clouds will increase, especially after lunch. Most spots will get a good soaking late Sunday and on Monday. Rain should become a little more showery on Tuesday, with highs in the lower 80s. The first upper air shortwave trough will pass east of the area on Monday.

There are increasing signs of a very deep upper air trough developing across the central and eastern US on Tuesday and Wednesday. That will send a strong cold front into Alabama on Tuesday. Scattered showers are possible ahead of the front, but we’ll quickly dry out on Wednesday and Thursday. We may see some of the coolest air so far this season behind the front on Wednesday and Thursday. If model data is correct, we can expect highs in the 70s and lows in the lower 50s. Some upper 40s are even possible by Wednesday night across north Alabama. While this could change, confidence is increasing in this cool air invasion by the middle of next week. If you like fall weather, there’s a good chance you’ll get a good taste of it on Wednesday.

The tropics continue rather active. Tropical Storm Nadine is moving northwest, through the central Atlantic. While Nadine is expected to become a hurricane, it will have no impacts on the US mainland. We’ll keep an eye on any other tropical activity over the next couple of months.

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Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

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