Isaac Update...Alabama Impacts... - Tuesday 4:40pm Update

Good Tuesday afternoon to you! Weather conditions around the area will gradually go downhill this evening and tonight, as hurricane Isaac gets a little closer to the area. The track has shifted a little west, which should keep significant weather to our west. Here’s what to expect across west and central Alabama….

Tonight – Thursday: periods of rain and thunderstorms. Some storms could produce a quick spin-up tornado, but the threat is low. Winds will gust to 30 mph around the area, but winds like that are not all that significant at all. Since Isaac is a weak hurricane and is tracking far west of our area, the effects will be pretty low. That being said, our weather will remain unsettled, with rain and storms at times. Keep the rain gear handy through Friday. Rain chances will gradually decrease on Saturday and Sunday. It will not rain all day or night, but rain will move in from time to time.

Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHTS INTO ISAAC…WHEN A BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WIND OF 64 KT WAS OBSERVED…THE RADAR AND SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ON THIS BASIS…THE ESTIMATED  INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KT.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES IN THE AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELDS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 310/07 KT. ISAAC REMAINS ON TRACK…AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. ISSAC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 30N LATITUDE. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAKNESS… THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS…WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISAAC SLOWING DOWN SOME MORE. AFTERWARDS…THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN BY ALL OF THE MODELS…ALBEIT TO VARYING DEGREES…WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHWARD BY DAY 4…AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY DAY 5. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK…BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS THAT HAVE RECENTLY HAD A LEFTWARD BIAS.

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AT 12 HOURS…FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME SUGGEST THAT ISAAC COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.  HOWEVER…BECAUSE OF THE UNUSUALLY LARGE WIND FIELD…RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

ISAAC REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE…HEAVY RAINFALL…AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. FOR THIS REASON…IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

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Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

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