Sunday Evening Forecast Discussion – 5:35 p.m.
August 19, 2012 Leave a comment
The surface front has begun to push southward as the main upper short wave trough digs southward into the lower Mississippi River Valley region. The surface front has pushed to near the I-20 corridor and a band showers has developed ahead of the front. There is some convection upstream near a vorticity maximum, but do not expect this activity to reach North Alabama and do not anticipate any rainfall for areas north of the surface front for tonight.
As previous models have advertised, the significant rainfall will likely stay near the coast tonight with a northward shift in the rainfall shield Monday morning as a weak surface low develops over southwest Alabama. The rain should mostly be east of Central Alabama by sunset Monday, but a few showers may linger over the extreme southeast areas as the surface front hangs up in this area. Mostly clear with lower humidities on Wednesday.
Mid week will be a mostly rain free period with daytime temperatures rising back to near normal readings for mid August. The main upper trough will shift east of area with a more zonal upper flow pattern by late in the week. Humidity levels will slowly increase as low level flow becomes southeast on back side of exiting surface high. Increasing chances of rain by the weekend as a short wave trough moves into the plains states.