Saturday Evening Forecast Discussion – 8:30 p.m.
August 18, 2012 Leave a comment
We had a good soaking this evening from a rain system that formed along a stationary front that was around the I-20 corridor this evening. The system will continue to push off to the east and the rain should be out of our area by 10 p.m. Another system that was located over Oklahoma is beginning to lose strength and dissapte and should not really affect us in the overnight hours. Depending on the timing of impulses, Sunday may be like today with early morning rain and minimal coverage of rain during the day. The main impulse will approach Central Alabama Sunday night, bringing with it the possibility of heavy rainfall. The NAM and ECMWF models are not showing the higher rainfall amounts like the GFS, so confidence is low. The rain should diminish from west to east on Monday as the short wave trough pushes east of the area.
The bulk of the rain should be east of Alabama by sunrise Tuesday as the main short wave trough shifts east of Alabama, with a few dry days to follow as the upper flow becomes zonal. As the surface high moves off to the east, southeast flow will develop and bring low level moisture back into the area. A weak short wave trough will pass to the north of Alabama Friday and Saturday and could bring the chance of rain back into the area.