Tropical Weather Update – Wednesday 2 a.m.
August 8, 2012 Leave a comment
We are definitely in the midst of hurricane season. There are currently three system that we are keeping our eyes on: Hurricane Ernesto, the remnants of Tropical Storm Florence and now Invest 92.
Invest 92 is a surface low pressure system associated with a tropical wave. It is currently located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for gradual development over the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
The model forecasts are already coming in and all are predicting that Invest 92 will become Tropical Storm Gordon within the next 48 hours. Below is the model forecasts for the next 132 hours or 5.5 days. Note one model does show Invest 92 becoming a hurricane within the next 5 days.
Another big element that is forecast for tropical systems is the possible track that the system would take. Typically this time of year tropical systems tend to follow the same general track. They form off the coast of Africa and follow a westward track into the Caribbean and then will usually make some degree turn to the north. The systems in August, September, and October are typically the ones that hit the gulf coast. With all of that being said, this system is still in the open Atlantic with more than a week before it will even within range of the U.S. Below is the forecast model tracks of Invest 92. What we will be watching for in the coming days is where the system makes it’s northwestward turn. If it stays in a westward motion for a longer period of time, we may see it move into the Gulf of Mexico. Right now there is still a very wide cone of uncertainty.
We will of course keep a very close eye on this system and any others that may develop. Officially we are still ahead of schedule on when storms typically form during the season, so we could have a long way to go before the hurricane season ends in November. Continue to check back here and on WVUA News for the latest on the tropics.