Scattered Storms Continue… Saturday Evening Forecast Discussion – 9pm
August 4, 2012 Leave a comment
Good Saturday evening to you! Only a few scattered storms popped up on radar this afternoon and evening; in-fact, I got a strong storm over my house in Northport around 6pm this evening. Most spots around west and southwest Alabama stayed dry due to the lack of a lifting mechanism over our area. We had plenty of moisture and heat for storms, but there was nothing to get the air rising such as a weak disturbance. I was expecting a small scale lifting feature to move into Alabama today, but it stayed just north of us. Numerous showers and storm formed in northwest Alabama and Tennessee earlier today.
With the lack of a lifting feature in here on Sunday, I’ve dropped the rain chances down to 40%. I still expect a good coverage of scattered storms, but they should be a little more hit or miss than previously thought. This is better news if you are going to Fan Day at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. You still need the rain gear because the chance of scattered storms will be there through the entire day. The best chance of storms will happen between lunch and 7pm tomorrow evening. A weak cold front is moving our way and will impact our weather on Monday and Tuesday. Look for a good chance of scattered to numerous storms both days, as strong lift moves into our area. A deep layer of tropical moisture and heat over Alabama will serve as fuel to the storms as well, so look for storms to produce heavy rain and intense lightning.
The weak cold front will stall out right over Alabama on Wednesday and Thursday. We can expect the risk of scattered storms to continue each day next week, with rain chances in the 40% range on Wednesday through Friday. It will not rain at your house every day next week, but you’ve got a fair shot of a nice downpour anytime. The best chance of rain will occur between lunch and 9pm on Wednesday through Friday, but a stray morning storm can’t be ruled out. Highs will remain in the lower to middle 90s under a partly cloudy sky.
The beach forecast is looking fair on Sunday through next Wednesday. Expect a mix of sun and clouds, with the risk of scattered storms. It will not rain all day along the Alabama Gulf Coast or Florida Panhandle, but storms are possible. Highs will remain in the lower to middle 90s.
I’ll have an update on Ernesto around 10pm, when the new information comes out. Looking at forecast data, most computer models are in good agreement that Ernesto will impact the Cancun area, then move west northwest into Mexico or Texas next week. All data has done away with the look of a north turn. We’ll watch it close, but confidence is increasing that this system will not impact our local weather.
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