Radar Update / Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Discussion…Tropical Update…Beach Forecast – 5:40PM Update
August 1, 2012 Leave a comment
Good Wednesday afternoon to you! We’re watching radar trends this afternoon, as severe storms move across north and east Mississippi. These storms are moving southeast at 30 mph. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a severe thunderstorm watch for much of west Alabama until 10pm tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch includes the counties outlined in pink. Sumter, Greene, Hale, Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Lamar, Fayette, Walker, Marion and Winston County is under a watch in our area. I’ve circled where the best chance of scattered severe storms in west and northwest Alabama. Even in the threat area, the risk of severe weather isn’t all that high. Scattered strong to severe storms are still possible through 10pm tonight, but storms will die out shortly after 10pm. Radar trends show storms weakening for now, so the threat seems to be dropping a bit.
If a strong to severe storm moves into your area, expect the threat of damaging winds, hail and intense cloud to ground lightning. Not everyone will get rain, and this will not be anything like the event we had on Tuesday morning. This system is much weaker than Tuesday morning’s event. We just want you to know there is a fair threat of scattered strong to severe storms across parts of our area. Again, the main threat will happen in northwest Alabama.
The chance of these scattered strong to severe storms will continue to be possible through Sunday. Rain chances will range between 30 and 40% for the rest of the week and into the weekend. It will not rain all day everyday, but some spots will get a good soaking, followed by dry and sunny conditions. Highs will remain in the lower to middle 90s through Sunday. The upper air ridge will continue to split over the southeast this week and into the weekend. This will allow a slight northwest flow aloft to continue and some cooler temperatures aloft. Both will aid in the development of showers and storms across our state. It will not be a total washout for the weekend, so most activities should get in just fine. If a storm moves your way, go indoors. Just like the past few days, all storms will produce an incredible amount of lightning.
There is some hint of a cold front reaching Alabama early next week. I have a 30% chance of storms early next week due to rather low confidence in computer data for now. If more models suggest the front will arrive in our area, rain chances may have to be bumped up on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will remain the 90s, with lows in the 70s.
The beach forecast is looking fair over the next 5 days. Much like our weather, scattered storms are possible along the Alabama Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle each day through the weekend. It will not be an all day type of rain, but a storm or two is certainly possible. Highs along the coast will remain in the upper 80s to around 90.
We are also watching the tropics. Tropical Depression # 5 has developed this afternoon. It could become Tropical Storm Ernesto over as early as tonight. I’ve got a full update on that system a few posts below this one. We have lots of time to watch it, but confidence is increasing that the system may reach the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. I’ll update your forecast as we get closer.
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Richard Scott
WVUA Chief Meteorologist
