Sunday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 7:00 p.m.
July 22, 2012 Leave a comment
More showers are likely to develop Monday and Tuesday afternoon and move north as we remain in a southern flow. Looks like the best chances will remain to the south. We still will have an isolated chance north. Temperatures will warm up quite nicely both days with highs approaching the upper 90s.
On Wednesday, there are a couple of scenarios that could pose havoc on the current forecast. For now it looks like the persistent ridge and higher thicknesses will allow temperatures to get into the mid to upper 90s. We are backing off a degree or two from the previous forecast here due to the added moisture from a tropical wave that will be sliding northward through the eastern gulf. At the same time a back door front will work through the Mid-Atlantic. Question is how far west will it make it and will that help drag the tropical further east. The new SREF and GFS is trending that way with the NAM not as robust to the east. If the associated trough misses the wave then it will move east via the new Euro solution. So a lot of uncertainties develop Wednesday and continue through the rest of the forecast as we see the same pattern that we have been in setting back up by the end of the week with a weak frontal boundary meandering down through the Tennessee Valley. Stay tuned for the changes throughout the week.