Severe Storms on Friday…Drier Next Week – Thursday Evening Forecast Update 5:45pm
July 19, 2012 Leave a comment
Good Thursday evening to you! We’ve been watching numerous thunderstorms move across portions of east Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama pretty much all day. These storms have produced flash flooding issues and isolated wind damage. While the storms are not that far away, much of our area has remained dry. The storms to our southwest has robbed a lot of energy in the atmosphere and kept big storms from firing locally. That being said, new storms are developing over northeast Mississippi and are drifting southeast. There’s a chance the storms could reach west Alabama between 7pm and 10pm. Not everyone will get rain this evening; in-fact, most of the area will stay dry. The risk of rain is at 40 – 50% this evening, so keep the rain gear handy incase a storm develops over you.
Temperatures will gradually fall into the lower 80s after sunset, with a temperature around 79 by 10pm. Look for lows to drop into the middle 70s tonight. A few storms are possible at any point tonight, as a weakening cold front drops into north Alabama. The front will provide lift in an unstable environment tomorrow, so we’re going to have to note the risk of severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has gone with an aggressive 30% chance of severe weather over our area. That’s a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. I think the best chance of severe weather will occur between lunch and 10pm tomorrow, with damaging winds the primary concern. All of west and central Alabama is under this risk of organized severe storms. At this point, we do not expect an issue with tornadoes. Remember, strong strait line winds can do tornado like damage. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued in your area, go indoors and stay away from windows. Storms will gradually die down Friday night, as temperatures cool and the atmosphere becomes a little more stable.
A ridge will gradually nose back into the area over the weekend and early next week, so expect a reduction of storms on Saturday and Sunday. With the stationary front over north Alabama on Saturday, there’s still a fair chance of scattered, mainly afternoon storms. Rain chance stand at 50% on Saturday, but it will not rain all day. Storms will become isolated on Sunday and Monday, with only a 30% risk of rain at your house. We will notice a gradual increase in sunshine each day late in the weekend and next week, so temperatures will also increase. Highs will warm into the lower to middle 90s on Sunday and Monday, with middle to upper 90s on Tuesday through Thursday. Scattered, mainly afternoon storms will remain possible through much of next week.
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