Rain Chances Remain High…Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4:45pm Update

Good Wednesday afternoon to you! It’s been a rainy day across much of west Alabama, as we continue to deal with some much needed rain. While most areas east of I-65 haven’t got much rain as of yet, rain is moving your way and will become likely in east Alabama this evening and tonight. We’re dealing with lots of lift across our area thanks to a stationary front and upper level low. With lots of lift and tropical moisture in the area, showers and storms have developed all across central and west Alabama. It will not be a solid rain all day and night, but some spots will deal with rain for an hour or two non-stop, followed by a break in the rain. The risk of showers and storms will continue at times through the night, as lows fall into the lower 70s. With lots of clouds and rain across the area now, temperatures are in the comfortable 70s right now.

Conditions won’t change that much tonight, on Thursday and on Friday. We will continue to be under the influence of a weak upper level low, a stationary front, and a deep layer of tropical moisture. Look for good rain chances to continue through Friday, where most spots will get a soaking rain each day. Again, it will not be an all day type of rain, but one or two separate rains are possible each day across central and west Alabama. Rain totals are adding up, and we will continue to pick up more rain through Friday. Check out the latest storm totals from HPC. They are forecasting 3 to 4 inches of rain across much of north and central Alabama, with rain totals as high as 2 to 3 inches across deep south Alabama. While their map looks smooth and uniform, in reality, storm totals will vary from town to town. Some spots will pick up as much as 5 inches of rain while other spots get less than 2 inches between now and Saturday. I expect everyone to get some nice rain totals between now and the weekend.

Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday through Sunday. Rain chances will gradually decrease on Saturday and Sunday, as the best lift moves out of the area. I still expect scattered, mainly afternoon storms on Saturday and Sunday. By the weekend, rain chances will be hit or miss, so not everyone will get rain after Friday. Keep the rain gear handy and keep on any forecasting changes if you have outdoor events planned on Saturday or Sunday. Skies will become partly cloudy over the weekend.

We’ll get back into a summer like pattern early next week, with the risk of scattered, afternoon storms. The chance of rain on Monday through Wednesday will continue at 30%. Look for skies to reach the lower to middle 90s, with a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky.

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Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

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Radar Update/Forecast Thoughts…2pm Wednesday Update

Good Wednesday afternoon to you! Much of west Alabama continues to get a soaking rain as of 2pm, nearly all rain across Alabama is west of I-65 for now, but I expect east Alabama to get in on the rain later this afternoon and evening. The storms are below severe limits, and I expect most storms to remain below severe limits. There is a small chance of a damaging wind gust here or there, but that threat should remain pretty isolated. We are dealing with a beneficial rain across much of the area and we need it!

Showers and storms are moving east northeast at 20 mph, so they are slow movers. Expect it to pour across much of west and central Alabama, but the rain will not be a non-stop type of rain. Look for an hour or so worth of rain, then a break in the activity. There is a chance of several rounds of rain through this evening, so if you have any outdoor events planned, you may have to bring them inside or cancel. As of 2pm, rain is falling moderate to heavy over much of Walker, Fayette, Lamar, Tuscaloosa, Bibb, Perry, Marengo and Sumter County. There’s another batch of light to moderate rain over east Mississippi and parts of southwest Alabama. This batch of rain will likely continue to the northeast through the evening. Look for average rain amounts in the 0.25” to 1 inch range this afternoon and evening.

With a good lifting mechanism over us now, the risk of rain will continue on and off through tonight and on Thursday. Rain is possible, even with the loss of afternoon heating. As rain moves through your area, look for temperatures to cool off nicely thorough the evening hours.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Rain Chances Remain High…Wednesday Morning Forecast Update – 9:45am

Good Wednesday morning! Much of central and west Alabama is dealing with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies as of 9:45am. While most of our area is dry at this point, rain is starting to spread in from the southwest. A batch of light to moderate rain has developed over much of east and south Mississippi. The batch of soaking rain is moving into Sumter County now and will spread east to northeast and include much of west Alabama between now and noon. This activity should reach the Tuscaloosa area sometime after 11am. Rain seems to be increasing on radar, and this trend will likely continue, as much of the area deals with a nice soaking rain at times.

I don’t expect it to rain all day, but I also don’t expect the threat of severe weather like yesterday. Clouds are keeping temperatures a bit cooler, so the risk of severe weather should be a bit lower. Since instability was a driving force for severe weather yesterday, the lower instability levels today should help us out a bit. That being said, a storm may reach severe limits, with the threat of damaging winds somtime this afternoon.

We need the rain, and many spots have picked heavy amounts of rain over the past 5 days. I’ve picked up 0.20″ at my house in Northport over the past week, so I need more rain! I know there are other areas out there that have been kinda missed on the good rain totals. There’s a great chance we will break that lack of rain in all areas today, Thursday and on Friday. The chance of rain is high due to a weak upper level low over the south, and a weak surface front. With these two lifting features and a deep layer of tropical moisture over our area, the risk of rain will continue to be high through Friday. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s in most areas today through the weekend. Once clouds and rain build into your area each day, look for temperatures to cool off nicely. We were at 96 yesterday afternoon in Tuscaloosa… The temperature dropped to 74 in a matter of two hours.

The risk of scattered to numerous storms will gradually decrease over the weekend. We’re calling for a 50% chance of storms on Friday and a 40% chance on Saturday and Sunday. While the risk of rain is lower, there’s still a good chance of scattered, hit or miss storms out there. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, don’t cancel just yet. The storms aren’t expected to last more than an hour on Saturday and Sunday, plus, there’s a fair chance that it won’t rain at your house. Highs will reach the lower to middle 90s on Saturday and Sunday, with lows in the lower 70s. Skies will become partly cloudy at times over the weekend.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com