Much Needed Rain Ahead! Monday Afternoon Forecast – 4:45pm
July 9, 2012 Leave a comment
Good Monday afternoon to you! We’ve got storms on radar this afternoon across southwest Alabama. As an upper level low moves our way, the risk of rain will continue to increase this evening, tonight and on Tuesday. The band of storms in southwest Alabama as of 4:30pm will continue to progress northeast at 20mph. Expect lots of cloud to ground lighting, brief heavy rain, gusty winds and the risk of small hail. I don’t expect storms to become severe today through Tuesday, but a random severe thunderstorm warning or two can’t be ruled out. The big story will be the major pattern change, as the upper air ridge shifts west and a trough develops over the east. We are forecasting a good chance of showers and storms for much of the week and into next weekend.
Temperatures have reached the lower to middle 90s this afternoon due to partly cloudy or mostly sunny skies. Much of central and west Alabama has been dry all day, but that will start to change from southwest to northeast, as thunderstorms increase from Mississippi. As clouds and storms move into parts of the area, temperatures will cool off nicely this evening and tonight. The risk of rain is at 50% for this evening and tonight, so not everyone will deal with rain. If you get rain at your house, temperatures will drop quickly. With high dewpoints, expect the air to become very muggy just after the storm passes your area. Without rain, look for temperatures to reach the middle to upper 80s at 7pm and upper 70s at 10pm. Skies will gradually become mostly cloudy from southwest to northeast through sunset this evening.
Lows tonight will fall into the lower 70s area-wide. As the weak upper level low moves into our area, rain chances will increase as the week progresses. Plus, a weak cold front is moving southeast and into north Alabama. The front and upper level low will provide lift over our area to give most of us a good, heavy rain. Rain chances will remain high at any point day or night this evening through Thursday night. It will not rain all day and night, but many spots will deal with multiple storms over the next few days, which will add up nicely and really help out our drought situation. Some spots will see more rain than others. We are forecasting average rain amounts between 1 and 4 inches. I think many spots will get atleast 1 inch of rain between now and Thursday night, but heavier storms will give some spots up to 4 inches. That being said, a few spots will stay under the 1 inch mark and a few spots may get more than 4 inches. The risk of the high and low end rain totals look pretty low. Keep in mind flash flood safety incase a heavy storm produces flash flooding in your area. Never drive across flooded roads. The risk of flash flooding is very low, but it’s not impossible for a stronger storm to lay down a quick inch or two of rain. Also, keep in mind lightning safety, as storms will likely produce lots of cloud to ground lightning. Go indoors as a storm moves near your area to reduce the risk of a fatal lightning strike. As skies become mostly cloudy, temperatures will come down a bit. Look for highs in the lower 90s on Tuesday, but upper 80s are likely on Wednesday and Thursday.
The best lift will move east of the area over the weekend, so I’ve dropped rain chances down to 40% on Friday through Sunday. There is still a good chance of scattered storms next weekend, but the coverage should be a little lower than many days of this week.
The beach forecast is looking fair Tuesday through Friday, but there is a good chance of scattered storms at any point. Highs will top out in the upper 80s along the Alabama Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. Look for partly sunny skies, with the risk of a passing storm at any point. Lightning will be intense with these storms, so keep in mind lightning safety.
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