Latest on Tropical Storm Debby…Better News For AL Gulf Coast… Very Hot Weather Ahead! Monday Afternoon Forecast 4pm

 

Good Monday afternoon to you! We’ve been watching Tropical Storm Debby very close over the past few days, so we’ll start with that. If you have beach plans to the Alabama Gulf Coast and points east to Panama City over the next few days and into the weekend, look for improving conditions. The sun is shining in areas west of Panama City, as the core of the stronger winds and very heavy rain has shifted into the big bend of Florida and the central part of that state. Debby is catching the trough and slowly moving northeast, so that will continue to take the unsettled weather away from Alabama’s Gulf Coast and the northwest portion of the Florida Panhandle. The storm continues to battle wind shear and dry air, so strengthening isn’t expected. Even with nicer weather making a return to the Alabama Gulf Coast, high rip current danger will continue through Thursday. There have been fatalities along the gulf coast due to the large waves and rip current, so please stay out of the water until the system continues to move east and the rough gulf calms down a bit. Seas should subside in areas west of Panama City on Wednesday and Thursday. A passing shower is still possible in these areas, but heavy rain is unlikely now. This is all great news if you have plans to the coast this week and weekend! Please note that dangerous conditions are still continuing for areas east of Panama City with heavy rain, the risk of tornadoes and gusty winds. Winds in the Gulf Shores to Destin areas are gusting to 35mph now, but the wind will gradually calm down on Wednesday and Thursday.

As for Central Alabama, we’re dealing with the dry and hot northwest side of Debby. Winds are a little gusty this afternoon due to the pressure gradient between the low to our southeast and high to the northwest. Winds will gust to 25 mph for the rest of the afternoon, on Tuesday and Wednesday. The wind is helping the comfort factor a little this afternoon, but it is still very hot. Tuscaloosa is reporting 100 at 4pm and Fayette is reporting 104! This is dangerous heat, so remain indoors or drink lots of water and stay hydrated. The map above shows the 4pm heat index values across our area. This is a combination of temperatures and moisture. These are very dangerous levels, with 110 being reported in Fayette and Sulligent. Due to these high levels, there is a heat advisory in west Alabama through this evening.

Temperatures will gradually cool this evening, with lower 80s by 10pm and middle 70s at midnight. We will only fall to 70 at daybreak tomorrow morning, so it’s not going to get all that cool. The north wind will pull dry air into Alabama on Tuesday and Wednesday. We’ll catch a break in the humidity both Tuesday and Wednesday, but it will return late in the week. Highs will come down a touch, with highs in the middle 90s. Skies will remain mostly sunny today through next weekend. There is no risk of rain across our area until Friday.

The ridge will build back into the area on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Look for temperatures these days to top out between 100 and 104. Heat index will top 110 at times late this week and into the weekend. Overnight lows will warm into the lower 70s again in time for the weekend. A passing afternoon storm is possible, but don’t expect a high risk of rain…

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Great News! Debby Is Weaker…Moving Northeast…Away From AL Gulf Coast – Monday Morning Update10am

Good Monday morning to you! I have some better news if you have a beach trip planned this week. Debby is lifting northeast and moving away from the Alabama Gulf Coast. Conditions are improving along our Alabama beaches and points east towards Destin. This week is looking better in terms of beach weather in the Gulf Shores to Orange Beach to Destin areas. If you are going to Panama City and points east, conditions will remain unsettled through Wednesday. A few showers and storms are possible to the west of Panama City, and along the Alabama Gulf Coast, but skies will become partly cloudy. Conditions will remain rather breezy through Wednesday, but I don’t expect anything strong unless something big changes. At this point, the beach forecast is looking better and better for the Mississippi, Alabama and western Florida Panhandle.

If you have plans to the coast or you area at the beach now, please stay out of the water. There have been several fatalities due to the deadly rip current. The waves are large along the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico, but the waves and rip current will gradually calm down a bit by Thursday or Friday. This is for the Alabama and northwest Florida area…

Since Debby is pulling to the northeast, she will have very limited impacts in central Alabama. A stray afternoon shower or storm is possible today, with a high near 101. Drier air will take over on Tuesday and Wednesday. This will cause humidity levels to fall. Look for afternoon highs to reach the middle 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday. The summer ridge will build back into our area on Thursday through next weekend. Highs will reach 100 each afternoon.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Alabama Coast Dropped From Tropical Storm Warning…Debby A Little Weaker… Northern Gulf Is A Mess! Monday Morning Update – 7:30am

Good Monday morning to you! Debby is a little weaker this morning, but the system is still producing tropical storm force winds over a large area. Wind will not be a big factor with this system, but heavy rain, very large waves, deadly rip currents and isolated tornadoes will be a big threat. We do note that the Alabama Gulf Coast has been dropped from the Tropical Storm Warning. Winds will gust to tropical storm force around the Gulf Shores and Orange Beach areas a few times, but conditions there will remain better than just east of that location. Storms will remain scattered along the Alabama Gulf Coast today through Thursday. This is a little better news if you have beach plans to the Alabama Gulf Coast this week. Destin and points east will deal with heaver rain for longer periods of time today through Thursday.

Anywhere along the northern Gulf Coast will deal with very large waves and deadly rip currents. You need to stay out of the water until the Gulf can calm down!

The track of Debby is slowly to the northeast, so that should keep the heavier rain bands out of the Gulf Shores and Orange Beach areas, but any west turn could mean for forecasting changes in that area. At this point, the more organized heavier rain bands will remain near and east of Destin, FL. Again, it will still rain along the Alabama Gulf Coast, but it will be more scattered. Really, the forecast for Gulf Shores and Orange Beach will be fair. Expect winds to get rather gusty at times, with a few showers here and there. The sun will even peak out a few times there. I think the more unsettled conditions will remain in northwest Florida.

Here in central Alabama, the heat will be the big story, with highs near 100 again today. A few scattered storms will develop during the afternoon heating just like yesterday. We can expect the same deal on Tuesday, as skies remain partly sunny to mostly sunny at times. A northeast breeze will develop today and continue through Wednesday. Winds will be on the side of 6 to 12 mph. Here’s an update from the National Hurricane Center.

DEBBY HAS A HIGHLY UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CIRCULATION…THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY SHALLOW CONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED IR IMAGES DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF COLD CLOUD TOPS.  AIRCRAFT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED…AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT. DEBBY IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OF MAXIMUM OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT…BUT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER AND IS ABLE TO REGENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION.  THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES…BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY.  DEBBY REMAINS IN A COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES…AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IN THE LONGER-TERM…THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE…WITH SOME MODELS TAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.  REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT…THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tropical Storm Debby Update – Monday 1 a.m.

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012
100 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO ENGLEWOOD FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST. DEBBY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THIS
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...
325 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...4 TO 6 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...2 TO 4 FT
COASTAL ALABAMA EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW.  SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURROUNDING
THIS AREA...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.  GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
ALABAMA.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather