Very Latest on Tropical Action in the Gulf! Tropical Update – Friday Eve 9:45pm

Good Friday evening to you! We’ve been watching an area of low pressure in the southern Gulf of Mexico for days now, and this system is gradually becoming better organized. I expect the low to develop into tropical storm Debby sometime on Saturday, as the environment gets favorable for tropical development. Model data is shifting back to the west again, so we will start to look towards a possible Texas landfall early next week.

The low is moving north now and will gradually get closer to the Alabama Gulf Coast, with outer rain bands impacting the area through the weekend. If you have plans to the LA, MS, AL or Florida Panhandle this weekend through Tuesday, you can expect on and off showers and storms, with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will gust to 35 or 40 out of the east at times due to a tight pressure gradient between the surface low to the south and a developing high to the north. It will not rain all weekend along the coast, but scattered showers and storms are possible at any point. Waves will grow large, with a high rip current threat anywhere in the central and eastern Gulf Coast. At this point, there are no indications of a direct landfall along the northern Gulf Coast. Either the ridge will force the storm towards Texas or the trough will pull the storm east late in the weekend and early next week. It will be a storm worth watching for anyone along the coast.

Here in central Alabama, we will notice some clouds from time to time, but I expect us to be far enough north of the center to remain rain free and very hot. Highs will reach the upper 90s through the weekend. We will notice a nice east breeze developing on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. The breeze will help the very hot conditions feel a little more bearable; especially during the morning and evening hours. Stay tuned for more updates through the weekend. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA…AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…80 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…WESTERN CUBA…AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Friday Afternoon Forecast Update – Watching Tropics… – 4:25PM Update

Good Friday afternoon to you! I had an awesome time speaking to a summer daycamp group at Indian Lake Baptist Church in Northport. The kids will be featured on WVUA-TV at 5, 6, and 10pm.

It’s turned out to be a hot day, with highs in the upper 90s across much of the area, and some spots nearly hit the 100 degree mark. While it’s summer and it should be hot this time of the year, we are above the normal. Temperatures should stay in the lower 90s this time of the year, so many spots are averaging 5 degrees above the normal high. Skies remain mostly sunny this afternoon across the area, and the sky conditions will remain partly cloudy to mostly sunny through your weekend plans. If you have plans outdoors this evening, prepare for mild and muggy conditions. Temperatures will reach the 90 degree mark by 7pm and 80 degree mark around 10pm.

The weekend forecast is looking great if you are going to the lake, pool or river, but it is looking very hot if you have to work outdoors. Highs will reach the upper 90s to around 100 on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The risk of rain is very low through early next week. Expect lows in the lower 70s each night, due to higher moisture levels.

We will be watching the low south of Alabama through the weekend. Lots of people are asking what’s going to happen in the tropics and who will deal with a mess over the weekend and early next week. Most model data tracks the surface low into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and then shifts the low to the northeast, over the state of Florida. If you have plans to the beach anywhere from Brownsville, Texas to Key West, Florida, keep a close eye on any forecasting changes. This system has given us a hard time to forecast due to the position of the ridge and trough. While model data is coming into better agreement of a Florida storm, things could still change. If you are going to Gulf Shores to Destin, expect scattered showers and storms on and off through the weekend and early next week. Conditions will become breezy as the low gets better organized. There’s a good chance this system will become a tropical storm or weak hurricane before landfall sometime early next week. At this point, I don’t expect major impacts to the Mississippi, Alabama and Florida Panhandle Gulf Coast. That being said, there will be a big risk of Rip Current, so please keep in mind safety when swimming. Waves will also become rather large through the weekend. Unless something changes, I don’t expect rain non-stop all weekend in the Gulf Shores to Destin areas. Again, keep it here for updates through the weekend.

The tropical low will likely bring down some dry air on Tuesday and Wednesday, which will drop our humidity levels bit. Temperatures will remain hot, but it will be more of a dry heat. At this point, there is little to no risk of rain over the next 7 days.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Gulf Low Moving North…Tropical Update – Friday Update 7:20am

Good Friday morning to you! Here’s a plot of our tropical models, issued early this morning. Most data brings this system to a point just south of the central Gulf Coast some time on Sunday, Monday or Tuesday. After that, data takes the system towards Florida or Texas. This is a tough forecast due to the ridge and trough interaction. Data has shifted a little further north with the stall out point, so this means there could be some impacts along the Alabama, Mississippi and Florida Gulf Coast over the weekend and early next week. If you have a beach trip planned, pay close attention to any changes! Some data develops this thing into a hurricane. If model data shifts this system closer to Alabama’s Gulf Coast before turning left or right, there could be some real problems. As of now, we’re forecasting scattered storms and breezy conditions. Waves will grow large along the Alabama Gulf Coast, and a rip current will become an issue; again, this is for the Saturday through Tuesday time frame.

If there are any changes, I’ll let you know on the weather blog, facebook, twitter and on WVUA-TV today at 4, 5, 6 and 10pm.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter. Like us on facebook by searching facebook.com/wvuaweather or WVUA-TV Weather. You can find us on twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com