Saturday Evening Forecast Discussion – 8:25 p.m.
June 16, 2012 Leave a comment
High pressure centered off the southeastern Canadian coast stretches southward along the eastern seaboard and into the southeastern U.S bringing easterly flow and drier air to Central Alabama. Better moisture is well to our west where westward moving isolated convection has developed.
Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the weekend and into next week. Ridging will build up the Appalachians Mountains as an area of weak upper level energy remains over the western Gulf and moves toward Texas. Low level easterly flow around surface high pressure should keep deeper moisture and precipitation associated with this feature to our west. Locally any convection will be driven by the heat of the day and dependent on mesoscale boundaries. Much of the area will remain dry this week. Near normal temps over the weekend will increase by a degree or two with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s.
By the end of the week, ridging across the eastern US will weaken as a front moves across the Midwest and broad troughing over the western Gulf and portions of Texas will strengthen, sending a disturbance northward. Expect the front to remain well to our north but as moisture spreads northward from the Gulf rain chances will return. The GFS is rather aggressive with the northward movement of the Gulf system, where the Euro maintains a stronger ridge across the area through next weekend preventing northward progression of any moisture. With these model differences we will keep a slight chance of rain for now. Temperatures will be dependent on which solution verifies and for now will keep highs in the low to mid 90s with lows around 70 degrees.