Severe Storms Scattered Around Alabama – Saturday 9:10 p.m.

We have a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the following counties until 1am:

AUTAUGA              BIBB                CHILTON
COLBERT              DALLAS              FAYETTE
FRANKLIN             GREENE              HALE
JEFFERSON            LAMAR               LOWNDES
MARION               PERRY               PICKENS
SHELBY               TUSCALOOSA          WALKER
WINSTON

Several severe thunderstorms have made their way into our area and are leaving some damage behind. There are several reports from Walker and Jefferson counties of wind and hail damage. Some of the storms to our north were tornado warned a little while ago. Right now we only have Severe Thunderstorm Warnings across the state. We are keeping a close eye on the weather tonight and will have the latest for you on WVUA News at 10.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Severe Tstorm Warning – Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, Bibb until 9:45pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
859 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
  NORTH CENTRAL BIBB COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
  SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
  EAST CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 856 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BULL
  CITY…OR 15 MILES WEST OF HUEYTOWN…AND MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
  ABERNANT…LAKE VIEW…BROOKWOOD…WOODSTOCK JUNCTION…BEVILLE
  LOCK AND DAM…VANCE…COALING AND WEST BLOCTON.

THIS INCLUDES…
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 86 THROUGH 97…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

Severe Tstorm Warning – Fayette, Walker, Winston until 9:15pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
828 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
  NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
  NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
  SOUTHWESTERN WINSTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 826 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING
  WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LYNN…AND
  MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
  CARBON HILL…ASHBANK…NAUVOO…ELDRIDGE…KANSAS…LUPTON…
  CEDRUM AREA AND HOLLY GROVE.

THIS INCLUDES…
US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 39 THROUGH 52…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

Severe Tstorm Warning – Tuscaloosa, Bibb, Jefferson until 8:45 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
758 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
  NORTHERN BIBB COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
  SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
  EASTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 753 PM CDT…TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OAK GROVE…OR 10
  MILES WEST OF HUEYTOWN…AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
  FAIRFIELD…HUEYTOWN…BESSEMER…OAK GROVE…MIDFIELD…MADISON…
  BON AIR AND BRIGHTON.

THIS INCLUDES…
INTERSTATE 459 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 6…
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 86 THROUGH 120…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH…PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER…
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

Showers Possible Late Today – Saturday 12:15 p.m.

Points north of Tuscaloosa and Pickens County are under a Slight Risk of severe weather today. The timeframe is from 3-10 pm. The mostly likely elements for us to see is hail and then some strong wind across parts of the area. The storms will remain isolated and not widespread. It will be much like our rain showers yesterday. The rain showers should be out of here by late tonight or early Sunday morning. If you’ll be heading out to the 2012 Tuscaloosa Regional Air Show, things are looking like they should be fairly nice for our Sunday with temperatures getting into the mid to upper 80s. Monday will be much of the same with sunshine and really warm temperatures before another front begins to move into the area late Monday and into Tuesday.

After looking at the latest ECMWF it appears that most of the medium/long range models are now in fair agreement with the evolution of the closed upper low. With that said there are still some timing and placement issues. The trend over the past couple days has been to slow the system down. Previous forecast packages have leaned more toward the GFS since it was the most consistent from run-to-run. Right now it looks like any activity associated with the cold front will hold off until Tuesday night. Still could see some scattered showers/storms on Tuesday, mainly due to daytime heating, as forcing will be an issue. The only lifting mechanism would be any mesoscale boundaries that may be present. There will still be the chance for some slight severe weather Tuesday mainly because of how unstable the airmass will be.

The cold front will approach the Mississippi River on Wednesday with showers and storms spreading into the area. The severe threat will continue as the airmass will remain unstable and due to the proximity of the front. Damaging winds and hail will continue to be the main threats. Rain chances will continue into Thursday as the boundary sags southward across the area. The GFS tries to bring another boundary across the area late in the week as the upper trough finally pushes off the Atlantic coast. There will be a slight chance of rain through Friday. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the entire forecast period but we could see a very slight decrease in temps in the middle of the week with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Rain Ahead for the Weekend – Thursday 5:15 p.m.

A few thunderstorms have developed across northwest Alabama this afternoon in what appears to be a zone of weak low level convergence. The majority of the convection is near and downstream of an upper level disturbance currently along the upper Texas coast. The main challenge tonight is will the convection associated with the upper low get close enough to West Alabama overnight. Expect most of the convection across northwest Alabama to dissipate this evening after sunset. Showers and thunderstorm activity over northern Louisiana will continue to shift northeastward overnight with some convection likely reaching West Alabama by midnight. The best chance of rain will be on Friday as the upper level disturbance moves across the central Gulf Coast region. Bulk shear is fairly weak on Friday, so no organized severe weather threat and with the rain expected to develop early in the day cloud cover should also limit instability.

The system will move quickly off to the east Friday evening and most of the rain will shift into east Alabama with rain mostly gone by midnight Friday night. Upper flow becomes northwesterly by Saturday. A weak surface boundary will remain across the southeast counties and kept a small rain chances across this area. With upper ridge axis building over area by Sunday…thickness and numerical guidance support afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 80s in many areas.

Monday through Thursday

Model agreement over the timing of the system early next week continues to be the challenge in the long term forecast. 12z models continue to slow down the timing of the system.

A weak shortwave trough will eject out of northern Mexico into the southeast ahead of the main upper level trough on Monday. With plenty of moisture and instability in place across Central Alabama this weak shortwave trough will provide enough lift for some showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area on Monday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Due to models slowing down the speed of the main upper level trough, a better chance for strong to severe thunderstorms appear to be on Tuesday. On Tuesday a more robust upper level trough will move into the southeast states. Models show that the trough will have a slight negative tilt that will help steepen lapse rates. The main threats at this time appear to be large hail and damaging winds. Plenty of instability and moisture will be present for these storms to form. Some limiting factors will be relatively weak flow aloft with only 50-60 kts at 300 mb. However, enough divergence and diffluence aloft will be present for synoptic lift across Central Alabama. All current long range models are on board with this solution except for the ECMWF. The ECMWF solution has a more elongated trough with the bulk of the upper level support over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Later forecast will continue to monitor the model trends and timing of the system early next week.

The cold front will move through Central Alabama by Wednesday morning. A few model solutions indicated some wrap around showers could linger into the day on Wednesday. Not enough confidence at this time to include lingering rain showers in the forecast on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures will move in behind the front with temperatures near normal late next week.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Warm Temperatures, Iso. Storms…Lower Weekend Rain Chances – Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 5pm

Good Wednesday afternoon to you! It has been another nice and dry day, but temperatures are approaching hot levels this afternoon. Many spots have reached the lower to middle 80s under a partly cloudy sky. While moisture levels have been low over the past several days, you’ll notice an increase in humidity over the next couple of days as dewpoints rise.

A storm system passing north of Alabama will have no impacts locally due to a strong ridge across the south. The ridge is blocking the storm system from getting anywhere near Alabama. A moist south flow has developed ahead of the front and is allowing dewpoints to increase. Due to higher moisture content at surface, temperatures won’t be able to get as cool as recent nights. Look for lows to fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s through early next week.

The upper level disturbance that was expected to bring a good chance of scattered storms on Saturday has really fizzled out on our latest model data. That being the case, I’ve brought down the rain chances on Saturday to 30%. This means we’ll see more sun, warmer temperatures and drier conditions. There’s still a chance for isolated showers or storms, but most spots will stay dry and rain won’t last long at all. Look for highs to reach the lower 80s through the weekend. As the surface low and upper level disturbance moves well north east of Alabama, skies will become mostly sunny by Sunday, with highs in the middle 80s. Lows at night will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s through next week.

There are big questions in the forecast for the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Right now model data is showing a large storm system developing and moving our way. This system is still questionable in our model data, so updates will likely be needed. There is a chance we may have to put severe wording in the forecast early next week.

The beach forecast is looking pretty nice along the Alabama Gulf Coast through the weekend. Look for a chance of scattered to isolated showers and storms, but rain chances will remain near or below 30%. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows in the 60s. This forecast is for the Gulf Shores and Destin Areas.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

Rain Chances Looking Much Lower for the Weekend! – Wednesday Morning Update 9am

Good Wednesday morning! I know there are lots of outdoor events happening this weekend, so here’s a quick forecast update. Today through Friday will feature partly cloudy skies and very mild afternoon temperatures. Highs will range between 83 and 87. We’ve been talking about a disturbance moving in on Saturday, which would bring a good chance of scattered showers and storms. The forecast data last night and this morning has really shifted away from that idea. Above is the 6z NAM, valid for 6am Saturday morning. This model run has the surface low well northeast of Alabama. If the NAM is correct, we would enjoy partly cloudy skies and very mild conditions. Highs would reach the lower 80s, with the risk of a passing shower or storm.

Above is the GFS valid for 6am Saturday morning. Again, the surface low is well northeast of Alabama. The very light shade of precip would indicate the risk of a passing shower or storm. Rain would be low if this forecast model is correct.

We’ll continue to go through the data and update the forecast. Much like we’ve said all week, don’t cancel your outdoor plans over the weekend. If the forecasting trend continues, I’ll have to bump my rain chances way down on Saturday to the 30% range. If you are going to the Tuscaloosa Airshow or any outdoor event on Saturday, keep checking in with the latest on your forecast.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

Hot Week…Storms This Weekend…Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4:40 pm Update

Good Tuesday afternoon to you! It’s been a very nice day with sunny skies and warm temperatures. Many spots have reached the middle 80s this afternoon, which is border-line hot in my opinion. The lower humidity has made it feel a little more comfortable this afternoon and evening. With low dewpoints and clear skies, temperatures will cool off quickly tonight. Look for lows between 52 and 57 across central and west Alabama. A ridge of high pressure has developed across the south, and is adding to the heat. The ridge will protect the deep south from any major rain chances through Friday, but the weekend may feature some changes.

A cold front will pass just north of Alabama on Wednesday and Thursday. While the ridge will keep the front from passing through our area, it will get close enough to enhance the risk of a passing shower or storm. Warm moist air will become drawn north, ahead of the cold front. This will become the necessary fuel for a few afternoon storms. Rain chances are at 10% on Thursday and 30% on Friday. Highs will remain middle 80s with lows in the 50s for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Lots of people are asking the “will it rain” question for Saturday. The latest forecasting trends suggest that a weak upper level disturbance will move across our state during the day on Saturday. With a deep tropical airmass in place and afternoon heating, look for a good chance of scattered showers and storms. Don’t cancel your outdoor plans on Saturday just yet, because it won’t rain all day. At this point, it is impossible to tell you the exact time it will rain at your house or event on Saturday. Model data is still a little questionable on the upper air disturbance, so the forecast may change a bit between now and the weekend. Keep checking in with us for any forecasting updates.

The disturbance will move east of Alabama on Sunday, so rain chances will move out of the area. Highs will remain in the lower 80s on Sunday and Monday. Data is hinting at a strong storm system moving into the deep south on Monday or Tuesday. This may bring an end to our lull in severe weather, but this is too far out to be specific. A change to cooler air will become possible towards the middle of next week.

The beach forecast is looking great through the weekend. Look for highs to reach the lower 80s today through Saturday along the Alabama Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandel. Lows will fall into the lower 60s. A few showers and storms will become possible on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, but rain chances look pretty low.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com

 

Nice Week Ahead…Storms Over The Weekend – Monday Afternoon Forecast Update 4:30 pm

Good Monday afternoon! It has been a very nice day in terms of weather conditions across much of the southeast. Temperatures have got a little hot this afternoon, with many spots reaching the lower to middle 80s. After a cool start to the day, temperatures warmed quickly due to dry air and plenty of sunshine. Also, ridging building in from the southwest is warming temperatures across much of the country. Skies will remain sunny for the most part through Wednesday, with highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the middle 50s.

A developing storm system north of Alabama will bring the risk of a passing shower or storm on Thursday and Friday. The ridge across the south will prevent the front from reaching Alabama late in the week, but it will get close enough to bring the risk of a passing shower or storm. Plus, tropical moisture will move into our area and will serve as fuel for a few storms. Look for temperatures to reach the lower 80s through Friday.

There are lots of events happening outdoors this weekend, but model data is making for a tricky forecast. You’ll really need to stay tuned for any sudden changes. At this point, an upper level disturbance and weak surface low will provide the necessary lift for showers and storms locally on Saturday. With the Tuscaloosa Air Show happening in town, numerous outdoor events and weddings, the chance of storms isn’t the best news for you. Lots of people have been asking what time will it rain. Since storms are expected to be scattered, it is impossible to tell you what time it will rain at your event or if you will see any rain at your house this far out. At this point, I’m forecasting a good chance of scattered showers and storms across central Alabama on Saturday. The best chance of rain looks to happen during the afternoon hours as peak heating takes effect. Highs will warm into the upper 70s on Saturday, with lows in the upper 50s.

The upper level disturbance will move east of Alabama on Sunday, so rain chances will decrease. A few scattered storms are still possible through the Sunday/Monday time frame, but rain chances will become isolated.

The beach forecast is looking nice over the next few days along the Alabama Gulf Coast and the Florida Panhandle. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday through Saturday. Skies will remain mostly sunny through Wednesday, but a stray storm or two will become possible Thursday through the weekend. At this point, rain chances look pretty low through the weekend.

Send us your weather pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates! Plus, facebook is a great way to send us weather pictures. Simply tag us!

Also, join us live on WVUA-TV weekdays at 4, 5, 6 and 10 pm and weekends at 10pm for the very latest on your news, weather and sports.

Richard Scott

WVUA Chief Meteorologist

rscott@wvuatv.com