Very Warm! Stray Severe Storm Tonight? Thursday Update 3pm
February 23, 2012 Leave a comment
Good Afternoon! Check out the highs so far today across the south. Many spots are in the 80s this afternoon, which is almost un-real for this time of the year. Jackson is at 84 and Tuscaloosa is at 80. Temperatures may actually warm another degree or two before cooling this evening. With some sun and gusty southwest winds, some drier air has mixed down to the surface. Dry air heats and cools very easily, so temperatures have made a quick spike this afternoon. Since we have really dry air just above the surface, it didn’t take much to bring some of that to the ground.
With some slightly drier air and a strong cap (layer of warmer air above the surface) over Alabama, the risk of severe weather is fairly low. Plus, a southwest wind isn’t that good for tornado development due to the lack of backing at the surface. You need a true south or southeast wind to really enhance windshear near the surface. The strong cap will hold until the cold front reaches central and west Alabama tonight. There will likely be a weakening squall line ahead of the front. The line may bring the risk of damaging winds and hail. Also the risk of a spin up tornado. The threat of all severe weather is very low near and south of Tuscaloosa. The map above is the area where we’ve marked for the greatest threat. Even across our northern counties, severe weather is unlikely. Look for the squall line to enter northwest Alabama sometime after 8pm and exit southeast Alabama after 60s. Once the line passes your area, the threat of any strong to severe storms will end. We’ll keep an eye on the radar tonight incase of any quick changes, but at this point, the risk is low.
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott


