Severe Weather Update…Forecast Thoughts… Thursday Update 8:30 PM
February 23, 2012 Leave a comment
Good Evening! The Storm Prediction Center has re-issued a slight risk of severe storms across our central Alabama counties for tonight. A strong storm system is developing northwest of Alabama now and will send a cold front our way late tonight. While we are under a slight risk, the chance of organized severe storms are pretty low at this point. A line of storms will likely develop northwest of Alabama and push into the state after 10pm. This activity will pass east of Tuscaloosa between 12am and 3am Friday morning. All storms will be long gone by 7am tomorrow morning across our eastern counties. The line will likely remain thin and broken as it moves our way. The severe weather parameters just aren’t that impressive for anything major tonight. That being said, we’ll watch the radar close through the night incase a storm grows out of hand. Below is meso-update for our area…
Above is a display of surface based instability. The best instability values are well south of Tuscaloosa. CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy is very low across all of central Alabama. Values are approaching 500 J/KG over the Montgomery area and 1000 J/KG near the Dothan area. Anything below 500 J/KG are very low for this time of the year. The blue on the map indicates where a strong Capping Inverstion is located. There’s a strong cap (layer of warm air above the surface) over all of Central Alabama. This cap will remain strong as the cold front moves in from the west. This should prevent any big severe weather issues tonight.
There’s plenty of speed wind shear across our area tonight, but there’s little directional wind shear. The winds are blowing the same direction through the entire atmosphere. You need that good turning of winds with height to get a higher tornado risk. This will prevent our area from dealing with a big issue with tornadoes tonight. A small, spin up tornado isn’t impossible, but the risk is very low. The best chance of a spin-up tornado will occur in areas near and north of Huntsville. The risk lowers a bit the further south.
It’s been a very windy day, with winds gusting to 40 mph in many areas. This is due to a strong low pressure northwest of Alabama. Pressure values drop off quickly from southeast to northwest, called a pressure gradient. The stronger the pressure gradient, the stronger your winds. Winds will remain strong at the surface over the next 24 hours as the surface low moves east. Later tonight, winds will switch around to the northwest. A gusty northwest wind will develop by daybreak and continue through our Friday.
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott
