Hot Today, Cool Tomorrow, A Few Storms… Thursday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:50 PM
February 23, 2012 Leave a comment
Good Thursday afternoon! Temperatures are way above the normal for this time of the year, with many spots reaching the lower 80s. Tuscaloosa is at 82 degrees as of 4pm. The record is 84 today, so it has been this warm before. Obviously, temperatures aren’t usually this warm in mid to late February. With very warm temperatures and windy conditions, many people are worried about severe weather tonight. While the air has that “bad weather feel” outside, there are several things working against us having any issues tonight.
First, there’s a very strong cap (layer of warmer air above the surface) over Alabama. This is keeping the air from rising and storms from developing. The cap will hold strong as the cold front arrives tonight, but the front will provide enough lift to allow a band of storms to move through parts of central Alabama. Next, the windy conditions and sunny skies have allowed some drier air to mix down to the surface. Lower dewpoint temperatures will aid in reducing the severe weather risk. Finally, winds are out of the southwest at the surface. Since we don’t have backing of the winds at the surface, rotation will have a tough time reaching the surface. In the past, I’ve seen storms spinning like a top but never produce damage because of the surface wind direction. The tornado threat is very low tonight, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. Keep your NOAA Weather Radios on tonight incase a warning is issued for your area. The best chance of a tornado will happen north of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham; even there, the threat is low.
A thin band of storms will move through central Alabama late tonight. Look for this activity to move into northwest Alabama after 8pm and exit east Alabama by 6am.
Temperatures will turn noticeably cooler tomorrow, with highs in the 50s. Some spots south of HWY 80 could reach 60, but a strong northwest breeze will make conditions feel chilly. Lows will reach freezing conditions Saturday and Sunday morning. Temperatures will range from 29 to 32 degrees both mornings. An upper air disturbance will swing across the northern Gulf over the first half of the weekend and will likely bring some clouds. We can expect a sunshine/cloud mix through Sunday morning. Skies will become sunny on Sunday, but more clouds are expected late Monday.
This has been a unique winter to say the least, with active weather, cold weather, and long stretches of mild temperatures. We will warm quickly next week, with highs in the lower 60s on Sunday and upper 60s on Monday. We may reach the 70s again on Tuesday and Wednesday, with lows in the 50s. A slow moving storm system will bring extra clouds and some showers late Monday through Wednesday. A few thunderstorms will mix in at times on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott
