Possible Severe T-Storm Watch Soon…Wednesday Update 3pm
February 22, 2012 Leave a comment
The Storm Prediction Center is thinking about posting a severe thunderstorm watch for this afternoon and evening. We do not expect widespread severe weather today, but the atmosphere is prime enough to trigger a few severe storms, mainly across north Alabama. Stay severe weather alert through 10pm tonight as a severe storm could develop over your area. We’ll watch things close. Again, I don’t expect numerous severe storms today, but there could be an isolated severe storm in the area at any time this afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves close by.
CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PAIRED WITH SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES REVEAL A CLEARLY DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER…BENEATH WHAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT CAPPING INVERSION. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/SLOWLY MOISTEN…THE EWD SPREAD OF COOLER AIR/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WHILE A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN — AND THUS LOCATION OF A CONCENTRATED THREAT AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN…INCREASINGLY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS PROVIDING A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. THIS — AND THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS – SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY…WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ATTM…CU FIELD APPEARS MOST ROBUST ACROSS NERN MS AND EWD ACROSS NRN AL AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WITH THIS AREA ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE BETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND NEAR THE SRN BOUNDARY OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSING WAVE…THIS AREA APPEARS ATTM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY INITIATION ZONE FOR INITIAL CONVECTION.
WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott
