Very Warm Temps…Severe Weather…Chilly Weather. Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Update – 5 PM
February 21, 2012 Leave a comment
Good Tuesday afternoon to you! It turned out to be a pretty nice day across Alabama. Most locations warmed in to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clouds this morning moved out quickly as dry air filtered in from the northwest. Some spots dealt with some showers early this morning. The storm system that brought the showers is well east of Alabama this afternoon. Another fast moving disturbance will bring the risk of an isolated shower or storm tomorrow, but the chance of rain is low.
With dry air over central Alabama this evening, look for temperatures to rapidly cool into the middle 40s tonight. Skies will remain mostly clear to partly cloudy through tonight and tomorrow. Other than a passing shower, Wednesday will turn out to be a very nice day. Look for highs to reach the lower to middle 70s. In-fact, temperatures like this is the normal for mid to late April. You won’t hear any complaints from me because I’m a big fan of warm temperatures. A gusty south wind will develop tomorrow and on Thursday. This will transport lots of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico just ahead of Thursday’s storm system.
There are still lots of questions on the Thursday night severe weather risk. If you have plans outdoors on Thursday, much of the day will be just fine. Highs will reach the upper 70s, with some spots reaching 80 degrees. Sky conditions will remain partly cloudy to mostly sunny at times through the day on Thursday. This will cause instability to rapidly increase through the day. While instability values will be impressive for this time of the year, a strong cap (layer of warmer temperatures above the surface), will keep storms from becoming organized during the daylight hours. The main action will come after sunset, as a strong cold front moves into the deep south. The front will allow enough lift to break through the cap sometime Thursday night. Model data is still questionable on the timing and strength of the storm system. Data is coming into better agreement on a decent severe weather threat for central and west Alabama. The parameters we often look at suggest the risk of severe weather will begin after sunset and last through early Friday morning.
Stay severe weather alert Thursday night through Friday morning. Now is a good time to go over your severe weather plan incase a tornado warning is issued for your area. Find that spot in your home that is the safer place, which should be the lowest floor, in a small room away from windows. Also, you must get a programmable NOAA Weather Radio. You can find them at Walmart, Publix, Radio Shack and Walgreens. They cost 20 to 30 dollars, but it is worth it. If we have tornado warnings at night, you will need something to wake you up. I suggest getting a Midland NOAA Weather Radio. Here’s a link to all the SAME codes in Alabama. You can program the weather radio for a single county or multiple counties. Find the codes by searching this link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/CntyCov/nwrAL.htm
We will continue to go through forecast data and fine tune the exact time and threat. This forecast has a potential to change a lot between now and Thursday, so make sure you stay severe weather alert. We’ll get you through this.
If we go under a tornado warning, we go live on WVUA-TV and on the radio: 100.1 The River and 102.9 Catfish Country.
After Thursday, conditions get chilly for the weekend. Look for highs to reach the upper 50s on Friday and Saturday with a cool north wind. Skies will become sunny late on Friday and on Saturday. Lows will fall below the freezing mark Saturday and Sunday morning.
Model data is starting to show another fast moving storm system early next week. I’ve added rain into the forecast on Monday with highs in the 60s.
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WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott
