NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory – The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season in 4.5 minutes

NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory – The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season in 4.5 minutes.

Below is the statement from NOAA:

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30 and produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This level of activity matched NOAA’s predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.

Surprisingly, none of the first eight tropical storms reached hurricane status, a record since reliable reports started in 1851. Hurricane Irene’s effects in the Caribbean and the United States led to 43 deaths and accounted for the bulk of this season’s damage at $7.3 billion. Irene was the first landfalling hurricane in New Jersey in 108 years. Hurricane Katia had far-reaching effects causing severe weather in Northern Ireland and Scotland and power blackouts as far east as Saint Petersburg in Russia. Tropical Storm Lee caused major flooding in Pennsylvania, New York and into the Canadian provinces of Quebec and Ontario. The strongest storm of the season was Ophelia, which reached category four strength in the Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda.

An integral part of NOAA’s ability to monitor and predict hurricane formation and movement is the data that is provided by the GOES satellite, with its visible imagery, infrared sensors, and sounding capabilities. This animations merges both the visible and infrared imagery taken by the GOES East (GOES-13) satellite every 30 minutes over the Northern Hemisphere from June 1 – November 28, 2011. (An update will be provided on December 1, 2011 after the Atlantic hurricane season officially ends)

If you have any weather pictures, send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

A Little Warmer… Wednesday Afternoon Forecast – 4:45 PM

A good Wednesday to you! It’s a little warmer this afternoon, but upper 40s to lower 50s are still well below average for this time of the year. With the extra sunshine, it’s felt a little better. With an area of high pressure moving into the deep south, winds will go calm tonight and temperatures will drop like a rock. We can expect a low well down into the 20s. A hard freeze and thick frost is likely early tomorrow morning. I wouldn’t be totally shocked if Hamilton and Haleyville reach 19 early tomorrow morning. Temperatures will start a nice warming trend tomorrow afternoon, as temperatures reach the lower 60s in many spots. We can expect a good supply of sun on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The high pressure cell will move east and winds will increase out of the south on Saturday. This will transport moisture in from the Gulf. Clouds will increase late Saturday and on Sunday.

As moisture increases on Sunday, a stray shower or two can’t be ruled out late in the day. An active storm system will dig into the deep south on Monday. Ahead of another strong cold front, we can expect another good chance of rain. This won’t be a day with severe weather or winter weather, but Monday will be a cool and rainy day. As the upper air trough digs very deep into the south, temperatures will plummet on Tuesday. We can expect highs to fall into the 40s on Tuesday. The trough will be progressive, so temperatures will gradually warm again on Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

If you have any weather pictures, send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4:15 PM Update

A good Tuesday afternoon to you! It’s been a nasty day with low clouds, some mist and cold temperatures. As a very deep upper level low moved across our area yesterday and lastnight, rain changed to some light snow or a rain/snow mix in parts of central Alabama. With a warm ground and road, the frozen side of this system didn’t bring any problems. Many spots picked up lots of rain, and that’s something we need. My rain gauge measured 2.75” in Northport, but some places received 3 inches.

The upper level low has tracked northeast of the area, but we’re still close enough to catch the low clouds and mist. We will gradually clear out from the southwest late tonight and early tomorrow. Despite more sun tomorrow, it will remain chilly, with a high in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The trough will amplify somewhat over the south, so we’ll remain cool over the next few days. In-fact, it will get downright very cold at night. Look for temperatures in the middle 20s Thursday and Friday morning. A hard freeze with widespread frost is likely. The frost will be a very thick one due to calm winds and lots of soil moisture Thursday and Friday morning.

As an area of high pressure moves into the deep south, winds will become calm and skies will become sunny. Expect a sunny sky through the first half of Saturday. Clouds will then increase Saturday evening and into Sunday. Our next storm system will arrive late Sunday or on Monday. At this point, there is no sign of wintry or severe weather. We’ll notice warmer afternoon highs on Thursday through Sunday, as many spots reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. An increase in moisture will warm lows a bit by Sunday and Monday morning to above freezing temperatures.

If you have any snow pictures, send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or searching WVUA-TV Weather. We also have a new like page on facebook, called WVUA-TV Weather. Since we’re running out of room on the friend page, I recommend you like us on facebook. Great way to get weather updates!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Rain/Snow Mix through 10am Tuesday… Tuesday Update 3am

While the air just of the surface is plenty cold enough for snow, the lowest 1,000 ft just will not cool. These Upper Level Lows can bring some wild weather, and this one has. Many folks have seen the first snow flakes of the season and in November. We can expect a rain/snow mix through the early morning hours or daylight hours, but I expect all of this to move out somtime after 11am. Clouds will likely stick around much of the day after.

One good side out of this system is that we got some much needed rain. My storm total is close to 3 inches at my house in Northport. Another good thing is this system didn’t bring travel issues or any major problems. Some people got a white ground out of this system, but with warm days leading up to the event, it took a lot for that to happen.

I don’t exepect any accumulation for the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham area, but a little may continue to stick for our northern cities like Hamilton and Halyeville.

If you did get a little snow, send us your snow pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Have a great morning!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Band of Snow Coming… Monday Update 10:00 PM

Much of the area is quiet right now, but I expect that to change later tonight as a small disturbance rotates into the area on the back side of the upper level low. Below is the 500mb chart, which shows the temperature in Celsius and wind speed/direction. The core of the upper level low is right over west Alabama, with the core somewhere close to the Tuscaloosa area. Inside the center, temperatures at 500mb are at -26 degrees Celsius. That’s incredibly cold for this time of the year and shows how deep and unique this system is. As a small disturbance moves around the west side of the ULL, precipitation will likely become enhanced in west central and northwest Alabama. As temperatures continue to cool tonight, the precipitation should be in the form of light snow.

Below is the radar image across the southeastern US. The heavier snow is located over north Mississippi and western Tennessee. This will move into extreme northwest Alabama after 10pm and the Tuscaloosa area closer to midnight. As the air continues to rise ahead of the small scale disturbance, precipitation will continue through early tomorrow morning. This may be enough to whiten the ground along and north of Interstate 20/59, with slightly higher totals north of Fayette. At this point, I don’t expect any travel issues, but we’ll watch places over Marion, Winston and Cullman County, as temperatures are dipping just below freezing. Road temperatures are well above freezing, so any issues should be very isolated.

Much like earlier forecast, this will not amount to a big deal, but Upper Level Lows have been known to throw us many surprises in the past. We’ll watch the radar tonight and make any quick forecasting changes if needed. All rain and snow showers should be out of the area by 11am Tuesday.

If you have any snow pictures, send them to weather@wvuatv.com.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Some Areas Getting Snow Now… Monday Update 5:20 PM

 

Above is the temperature at 850 mb. We often look at temperatures below 0 degrees Celsius as a threshold for rain to change to snow. Right now, the 0C line covers the entire state. The problem is temperatures below 5,000ft are too warm for snow in many spots. At 850mb, the temperature is between -5 and -6 degrees Celsius. That’s cold! As the lowest level of the atmosphere continues to cool, rain will change to snow over areas near and north of Greensboro tonight. The pocket of colder air will continue to move across the area and will be east of us by lunch tomorrow. Any rain and snow showers will be long gone by tomorrow afternoon.

Here’s the deal: Snow is falling across parts of Marion, Lamar, Fayette, Walker, Winston and Cullman County now; in-fact, accumulations are happening in spots to the north. The rain/snow line will gradually spread south and will likely reach Tuscaloosa and Birmingham later tonight. This will not become a big deal for the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham area, as temperatures will remain above freezing and roads will remain wet. The only trouble spots would occur in portions of Marion and Winston County, where roads may get a little slick in spots. With a warm ground and road, problems should be isolated even to the north of Fayette.

Snow is falling north of Fayette now, but rain should change to snow along Interstate 20/59 after 9pm tonight and continue at times through 9am tomorrow morning. Any accumulations should remain to the north of Tuscaloosa, but I can’t rule out a heavy enough burst to whiten the ground along the interstate. Even if that happens, once the snow stops, the warm ground will melt any accumulations. 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible over Marion and Winston County.

If you have any snow pictures, send them to weather@wvuatv.com.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Snow Update 12:30 PM Monday

We’re watching the radar close this afternoon. There’s a lot of rain happening across the western and northern half of the state, as a deep upper level low moves into the area. Temperatures aloft and at the surface are getting colder and colder, so rain is starting to mix with snow in spots. Especially in the western portion of the state. A few reports have come from Tuscaloosa, Pickens, Lamar, Fayette and Marion County. At this point, most of the precip is rain, but a mixture will continue to spread into the area.

This mess should change over to light snow and snow showers after sunset, as deeper cold air takes over. The center of the Upper Level Low is near Jackson, MS. As the ULL keeps moving in our direction, precipitation will continue to spread into the area. This will not be a major event, but snow may come down hard enough to allow for some accumulations for areas north of Moundville. A dusting to 1 inch is possible for Tuscaloosa, Pickens, Shelby and Bibb County. Up to 2 inches is possible for areas near and north of Lamar, Fayette, Walker and Cullman County. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for much of the area due to the possible accumulations. The snow should continue on and off through tonight and early Tuesday morning. Once the snow stops in your area, anything on the grassy areas will quickly melt. We don’t expect any major travel issues around here, but we’ll be keeping an eye on roads near Haleyville and Hamilton. Snow could come down heavy enough there for some isolated problems. Remember, the ground and road is warm due to the mild temperatures over the past couple of weeks. If this were January, we would be talking a different story.

The best chance of snow will happen for areas north of Greensboro this evening through 9am Tuesday Morning. Temperatures will remain just above freezing.

Be sure to send us your snow pictures! Send them to weather@wvuatv.com. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com or WVUA-TV Weather.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Another Quick Winter Weather Update – Monday 7 a.m.

This is the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook from the NWS in Birmingham. I just wanted to post it so we can all be fully informed.

A strong upper level storm system will bring much colder air and additional moisture to portions of central Alabama this evening into Tuesday morning. Rain will transition to snow from west to east as early as this afternoon beginning across portions of northwest central Alabama lasting through Tuesday morning. The greatest chance of snow accumulation will be north of a line from Aliceville to Alabaster to Talladega to Ranburne, where a Winter Weather Advisory has been posted. Up to two inches is possible northwest of a line from Vernon to Winfield to Haleyville. Up to one inch accumulation is possible elsewhere within the advisory.

Warm ground conditions should prevent widespread travel problems. However, snowfall could be heavy at times resulting in lower visibilities and slick spots on roadways.

Light snowfall will continue through early Tuesday morning with little to no additional accumulation expected.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Winter Weather Update – Monday 6 a.m.

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow, which is in effect from Midnight tonight to 9 am Tuesday.

A mixture of rain and snow is possible this evening and will transition to all snow after midnight. Precipitation will taper off from west to east Tuesday morning. Snowfall could be heavy at times resulting in quick accumulations on elevated and grassy surfaces. Snow accumulations up to one inch are possible.

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities and use caution while driving.

The models are starting to become in better agreement now that the upper level low is finally forming. Below is the NAM snow accumulation forecast. Keep in mind that this does not mean there will be this much snow on the ground because much of the snow will melt as soon as it touches the warm surfaces. Below is a key to the graph.

Light pink = Dust to 1 in
Purple = 1 to 2 inches
Blue = 2 to 3 inches
Yellow = 3 to 4 inches
Green = 4 to 5 inches

Again, these models do NOT mean we will see this much snow. The ground is still way too warm to sustain much accumulation. We could see white ground, as long as it keeps snowing. Once the snow is over, the accumulation will quickly melt. We are not expecting any travel delays with this wintry weather.

The cold front has pushed just east of the Alabama state line this morning as light to moderate rainfall continues to move northeastward across eastern portions of the area. Looking at an increase in weak radar returns across Mississippi over the last couple hours and noting several light rain spots across Mississippi and western Tennessee. Current temps across central Alabama range from the upper 30s in the northwest to low 50s along the Alabama-Georgia state line.

Behind the slow moving front an upper level closed low will deepen to our west today bringing an unusually cold airmass across portions of north central Alabama tonight. Impressive dynamic forcing coupled with moist profiles up to -25 degrees will result in snow with heavy precipitation rates at times, particularly across the northwest this evening. Expect temperatures to remain above freezing at most locations across the north tonight in the 33-36 degree range. Although a few places in the far northwest could drop to near 30 degrees. With such high precipitation rates and a deep moist column above 925mb below freezing, a snow or rain/snow mix is possible despite the above freezing surface temps. There remains some uncertainty as to how much accumulation we will see, as ground conditions are rather warm. If snow falls with the expected intensity a quick accumulation on elevated and grassy surfaces is possible. Most of the precipitation will melt on contact or once the intensity lessens.

Timing: forcing increases late this afternoon across the northwest and near surface profiles cool. Expect rain to begin changing over to snow after 4pm in the northwest. As the closed low tracks across north Alabama the rain will change over to snow or a rain/snow mix from west to east this evening, then all snow across the north after midnight. Precipitation will end from west to east Tuesday morning as the closed low pulls away from the area.
Amounts: there is the possibility of up to two inches in the northwest given the expected forcing, despite the warm ground conditions. The two inches might fall rather quickly and melt just as quickly. Up to one inch is possible in the northeast. Expect little to no accumulation south of Interstate 20.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Sunday Evening Forecast Discussion – 11 p.m.

Dynamic upper trough will slowly inch eastward while becoming a cut off low later tonight. This is an unusually very cold upper low that will shift over central Alabama Monday evening and Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, we will continue to deal with light to moderate showers through the night as a slow moving cold front pushes through the state. Banding over northern Mississippi will also shift eastward tonight as the upper jet shifts towards our area ahead of the developing upper low.

Regarding the upper low and chance for snowfall, there were not any significant changes to the previous forecast reasoning as we are still expecting a very stout upper low to pass over northern Alabama Monday evening and exit to the northeast Tuesday morning. There were some subtle changes to the “wobbling” nature of the upper low but the impressive dynamic forcing and cooling potential remained the same. If anything, the models may have sped up the arrival of the cold core a few hours and would not be surprised to hear of a few flakes mixed in with the rain Monday afternoon across our northwest. Sounding profiles are not really supportive of widespread snow reaching the surface until the mid evening hours but given the extreme cold nature of this system, there is a chance for snow for northwestern Alabama counties by 6pm Monday with rain or snow possible to the I-20 corridor. Some adjustments to timing will likely be made but much higher confidence in the northwest as they fall under the core of this system throughout Monday evening and Tuesday morning.

Accumulation potential (roughly I-20 northward) forecast soundings never fall below freezing at the surface but they are below freezing just above the surface for many of our northern counties. Locations in higher elevations and any area that receives a prolonged burst of snow could see some accumulations on grassy areas and maybe tops of cars, etc. Not going to forecast accumulations at this point because once the snow burst lets up, the warm ground will rapidly melt anything that manages to (briefly) stick. So at this point no travel problems expected.

 Any lingering light precipitation on the backside of the upper low will come to an end Tuesday evening. Another shortwave will push through the area Wednesday evening but with no moisture to work with, we’re only expecting a re-enforcement of cool air. Thereafter, through next weekend, expecting dry conditions with below average temperatures.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather