Northern Lights Make Rare Visit to South! Monday Update 10:30 PM

AURORAS IN THE USA–NOW! Northern Lights have spilled across the Canadian border into the contiguous USA. Observers report auroras as far south as Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, Indiana, Maryland, New York, Ohio and central California.

CME IMPACT: A CME hit Earth’s magnetic field on Oct. 24th at approximately 1800 UT (02:00 pm EDT). Acording to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the impact caused a strong compression of Earth’s magnetic field, allowing solar wind to penetrate all the way down to geosynchronous orbit for a brief period between 19:06 UT and 19:11 UT. Earth-orbiting spacecraft could have been directly exposed to solar wind plasma during that time.

Many people in the US are getting a very rare look at an Auroras tonight. There have been some scattered reports of seeing the northern lights as far south as north Alabama.

Be sure to join me on WVUA-TV news at 4, 5, 6 and 10pm weekdays for the latest on your forecast. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. You can like us on facebook by searching our new page WVUA-TV Weather. Also, send us your weather pictures by e-mail to weather@wvuatv.com. Have a great day!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Source: Spaceweather.com

Monday Afternoon Forecast Update – 4:50 pm

A good Monday afternoon to you! Temperatures have warmed nicely this afternoon, with many spots reaching the upper 70s. After sunset, temperatures will fall quickly. While it won’t be as cold as recent nights, lows will reach the upper 40s. An area of high pressure nearby will keep conditions very nice and calm through Wednesday. Expect warm days and cool nights. Highs will remain near 80 degrees on Wednesday.

The surface high will shift east a bit during the day on Wednesday. This will allow for a south flow to develop ahead of our next storm system. We can expect increasing clouds late Wednesday night and on Thursday. As a cold front approaches the area, we’ll notice an increase in showers and storms late on Thursday. Most of the rain will be located behind the front, so that will keep our severe weather threat lower. Also, the models have trimmed back on some of our severe weather parameters. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a strong to severe storm, but a major threat appears very low. Now that we’re getting into our secondary severe weather season, we’ll have to keep an eye on any approaching storm system.

Cooler air will take over behind the front for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Highs will fall into the middle 60s, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s through the weekend and early next week.

We now have a hurricane in the tropics this evening. Hurricane Rina is expected to become a major hurricane over the next couple of days. This system appears to have no threat to our area at this point. If anything changes, we’ll update the forecast.

Be sure to join me on WVUA-TV news at 4, 5, 6 and 10pm weekdays for the latest on your forecast. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. You can like us on facebook by searching our new page WVUA-TV Weather. Also, send us your weather pictures by e-mail to weather@wvuatv.com. Have a great day!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Rina Becomes A Hurricane! Maybe a Major Hurricane Soon… Monday Update 4 PM

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF RINA AND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS NOT REPORTED ANY STRONGER WINDS SINCE THEIR INITIAL PASS INTO THE CENTER JUST BEFORE 1800 UTC…AND BASED ON THE EARLIER DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT.

RINA WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. SO FAR…RINA HAS REMAINED WELL INSULATED FROM THE DRY AIR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT REACH THE CORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT… SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND RINA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE ISSUED IN THE SPECIAL ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME…IT IS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE HURRICANE…IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE RAPID CHANGES BOTH UP AND DOWN IN ITS INTENSITY.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED DOWN.  A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RINA WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD…THEN NORTHWARD IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  AFTER THAT…THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD…AND THE GFS SHOWING AN EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION.  FOR NOW…THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE…AND THE POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY…THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA.

Be sure to join me on WVUA-TV news at 4, 5, 6 and 10pm weekdays for the latest on your forecast. Also, look us up on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. You can like us on facebook by searching our new page WVUA-TV Weather. Also, send us your weather pictures by e-mail to weather@wvuatv.com. Have a great day!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Rina Rapidly Intensifies to Hurricane – Monday 2 p.m.

HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011
200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

…RINA QUICKLY BECOMES A HURRICANE…ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…17.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 195 MI…310 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 360 MI…580 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH…7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…991 MB…29.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE…THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…
AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH…7 KM/H…AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…
120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND RINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES…185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB…29.26 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL…RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM EDT.

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