Wednesday Afternoon Forecast Update/Tropical Update – 6:30 PM

A good Wednesday evening to you! Be sure to scroll down for the latest on a developing gulf storm. This system could bring some big impacts to Alabama with heavy rain and gusty winds.

The short term forecast won’t change that much. An isolates shower or storm is possible this evening and again on Thursday. The chance of rain is low, but temperatures will remain high. Highs will continue to top out in the middle to upper 90s through Friday. Winds will gradually increase as the pressure gradient increases between a high pressure to the north and the developing low to the south. Look for a nice 10 to 20mph breeze through Friday and Saturday.

The medium range forecast all depends on what happens with the developments of Lee. Much of Saturday will remain dry, but afternoon storms will become possible for areas south of Tuscaloosa. Heavy rain will then start to spread inland along the immediate coastal sections of the state. Rain should hold off for the Alabama Football Game on Saturday, but rain could become a good bet on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

Some cooler air moves in on Wednesday and Thursday, as highs settle back into the 80s.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tropical Trouble in the Gulf of Mexico… Alabama Impacts? Wednesday Update 5 PM

If you have plans to the Alabama Gulf Coast this weekend, we’re going to have some big issues. A developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico will likely become tropical storm Lee by Friday. Many of the tropical models as well as global models develop this into a tropical storm. Most data also move it into the central Gulf Coast States.

With very warm water temperatures and low wind shear, I wouldn’t be surprised if this system quickly develops into a tropical storm or weak hurricane. That all depends on how much time it spends in the gulf and its exact track.

Our thinking right now…. Look for heavy rain to develop along the coastal sections of Alabama on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The rain will gradually spread north and should move into the Tuscaloosa area Saturday night or Sunday. With a strong low to our south and strong high to our north, a tight pressure gradient will give us a howling east wind on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. If the center of this storm moves inland along the Alabama or Mississippi Gulf Coast, much of west Alabama will have some winds gusting over 30 MPH. There is a chance of very heavy rain across parts of Alabama, where flooding could become an issue. The best chance of this will happen south of Demopolis.

Again, this could all change as new data comes in. Stay with us for more updates soon to come.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tropical Storm Lee Ahead for the Gulf of Mexico? Tropical Update 10 PM Tuesday

Here’s the latest 0Z run of the NAM, which is valid for Saturday morning. For everyone who has plans for the Alabama Football game on Saturday, I’m sure you’ll be paying close attention to the forecast. If the NAM is right, rain bands would start moving into south Alabama Saturday morning but should not threaten the Tuscaloosa area. It’s a close call… While this model brings it closer to Alabama, most data keeps it away from our area. With an approaching trough from the northwest, we have to atleast put some confidence in northern Gulf Coast storm.

Data also keeps this feature fairly disorganized and well below hurricane strength, but we’ll watch it close. Right now, the area of disturbed weather is in the Caribbean. Since water temperatures are in the upper 80s to lower 90s, a tropical storm would have potential to rapidly develop.

Again, don’t change plans for Saturday just yet. We’ll know a lot more by this time tomorrow night. At this point, I think the best bet is for a Texas or west Louisiana landfall.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tuesday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – Updated 4:30 PM

A good Tuesday to you! After a nice start to the day, it’s much hotter this afternoon. Many folks are feeling temperatures near 100 degrees. As of 4 PM, Tuscaloosa is at 99 degrees. Radar and satellite is very quiet this afternoon, so don’t expect any rain through the rest of the day. In-fact, rain chances will remain very low through the weekend.

Rain chances will increase on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, ahead of an approaching cold front. This will allow for temperatures to drop a few degrees due to the extra clouds and some storms. We will also be watching some tropical mischief in the Gulf of Mexico. Data continues to develop a tropical storm in the central Gulf, with a landfall somewhere between central Louisiana and south Texas. With an approaching trough, it’s possible that this system itself or tropical moisture from it will move into the state ahead of a cold front. There are still more questions than answers, but the best bet that any rain from this feature would occur on Labor Day. We’ll continue to sift through data and fine-tune the forecast.

If you have plans to the Alabama football game on Saturday, the chance of rain is low at this point, but a stray storm is possible. It will be a hot and humid day, with highs near 95. Heat index values could top 100, so make sure you drink plenty of water to stay well hydrated.

As a cold front moves into the state, rain chances will come and go on Monday and Tuesday. Dry air should take over on Wednesday.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Another Major Hurricane In The Making… Tropical Storm Katia Update 12:15 PM Tuesday Update

Tropical Storm Katia has formed in the Atlantic this morning and afternoon. Katia is becoming better organized and will likely become a major hurricane in 5 days. This storm doesn’t look like a gulf threat at this point.  Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center.

EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KATIA HAS DECREASED AND THE STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE BANDING FEATURES ARE BETTER DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS SET AT 40 KT.  WITH WEAKENING SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 28 DEG C…KATIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS…WHICH
SHOWS KATIA NEARING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 285/16. NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  KATIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD…THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE KATIA TO BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Tropical Action In The Gulf? Monday Update at 5 PM

We’re watching data close this afternoon, as models are indicating tropical development on Wednesday and Thursday. Above is the 18Z run of the NAM for Thursday night at midnight. This shows a developing tropical storm, moving in the direction of Texas. Data is picking up on a tropical wave in the Caribbean. We have a couple of days to watch it, but our forecast models are keeping it away from Alabama at this point. If it moves into Texas, it could move into Texas over the weekend. Stay tuned for updates!

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Monday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4:30 PM Update

A good Monday to you! Today is the anniversary of catastrophic Hurricane Katrina. Be sure to scroll down for thoughts on that. Temperatures this morning were fairly cool, as we have a dry, north flow. Dry air heats and cools very effectively, so a cool start to the day ended up hot this afternoon. Temperatures topped out near 100 in spots, but it’s a dry heat. The dry air is giving us a slight break when it comes to the oppressive heat.

Conditions will remain dry through atleast Friday. Highs will top out in the middle to upper 90s. Expect a sunny sky each day, with fairly cool nights and hot afternoons. Moisture will gradually increase by Friday, Saturday and Sunday. This will allow for the afternoon storm chances to increase to 30%. I don’t expect anything major for the Alabama Football weekend, but you may have to dodge a few rain drops.

Temperatures will gradually trend downhill over the weekend and early next week. This will be a result of an increase in clouds and moisture. Highs will top out in the middle 90s over the weekend and lower 90s by early next week. With an increase in moisture, temperatures at night will warm back into the 70s on Friday, Saturday and Sunday morning.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the very latest on your forecast. Also, check us out on facebook and twitter by searching weather@wvuatv.com. Send us your weather pictures by the same address. Weather@wvuatv.com

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Hurricane Katrina Today, 6 Years Ago… Monday Update 11am

It was 6 years ago today, when we were watching the destructive Hurricane Katrina move inland into east Louisiana and south Mississippi. Later today, Tuscaloosa would experience winds gusting between 60 and 80 MPH. It was a hurricane that I’ll never forget in a season that seemed unreal. Katrina became one of the most powerful hurricanes in recorded history in the Gulf of Mexico, where water temperatures approached 90 degrees. The first landfall of Katrina was on the mouth of the Mississippi River. Winds were sustained at 145 MPH, which is category 4 status. It made it’s second landfall near the Louisiana and Mississippi gulf coast border as a Category 3 storm. New Orleans did not take a direct hit from the storm, but it was close enough to cause significant damage and storm surge. We all know what happened after that. Katrina would then move inland during the morning and afternoon hours, producing tornadoes, horrific wind damage, and flooding rain. Since the storm was so large, it took a long period of time for it to weaken. It was still a hurricane as it approached Columbus, MS. Thousands and thousands of trees were uprooted in west Alabama as a result of the powerful winds. It was a sight that I’ll never forget.

This storm had caused significant loss of life, where nearly 2,000 people died. Katrina would go down in history as one of the most devastating natural disasters in the history of the United States.

Be sure to join me on WVUA-TV today at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great day!

Add us on facebook and twitter. Search weather@wvuatv.com

 WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

rscott@wvuatv.com

Image Source: NWS Jackson, MS

Tropical Depression 12 Froms in Atlantic

As I discussed last night Invest 92L has now formed a center of circulation making it Tropical Depression 12 and it is forecast to become Tropical Storm Katia later today. As of right now i appears that this system will stay out in the Atlantic, but long term models take it close to the east coast of the U.S. The following graphic shows the GFS model for 11 days from now, you can see a strong storm out in the Atlantic.

The forecast models are also taking this system generally toward the east coast but we do expect it to make that turn to the north before hitting the U.S.

But this system is expected to become a hurricane and possibly the next major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season. A couple of models are forecasting it to strengthen into a category 3 storm.

I should mention there are also three models that have this system never developing into a hurricane. Either way we need to watch this system because things can change over the next week and final direction and intensity are still to be determined. We will keep a close eye on it. Below is the official National Hurricane Center advisory.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011
500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 26.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather

Invest 92L Forecast Update – Sunday 9:30 p.m.

The National Hurricane Center in their latest tropical update gives Invest 92 a near 100% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next day or two. The hold up is it forming a good center of circulation. That is was distinguishes a tropical depression from a tropical wave.

The disturbance is located about 400 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving to the west at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to start moving to the west-northwest and eventually the northwest over the next 48 hours. Long term models take this system toward the Caribbean but confidence in guidance after that is very low.

One forecast model predicts that Invest 92 will become our next major hurricane. All but two have it becoming Hurricane Katia within the next 72-96 hours. We will have to watch this system closely as it continues to develop.

Daniel Sparkman
dsparkman@wvuatv.com
WVUA Weather