I’ve got some better news in terms of our severe weather threat for tomorrow. The new soundings are out, and a strong cap is in place. A cap basically keeps convection from naturally forming, as it acts as a block in the atmosphere. Since the cap is a bit stronger than previously expected, we aren’t expecting any storms through the night and into the morning hours tomorrow. A few showers will be around, but that’s about it. With a cap this strong, the only way we can break through it is with a strong lifting mechanism such as a front. That being said, I don’t expect storms to make it in here during the early morning hours, as previously thought. This is a good and a bad thing.
This is good because the environment will be much more favorable for tornadoes during the morning hours, due to the high level of wind shear in place. The stronger wind shear will be long gone once the front gets here. If the storms aren’t here when the good wind shear is, the threat of tornadoes goes down.
This is bad because the atmosphere will get more unstable due to more sunshine and warmer temperatures. Once the front arrives, storms will be much more likely to produce large hail. In-fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to get a few reports of hail the size of golf balls or a little larger.
Storms will be isolated or scattered in nature, so not everyone will see severe weather. If you get underneath one of these severe storms, expect the threat of large hail and damaging winds. Eventhough wind shear will be lower, I still can’t rule out a tornado or two. I think the main threat of tornadoes will be well north of Alabama.
If any tornado warnings are issued for our immediate area, be sure to join me on WVUA-TV for live tornado coverage. Otherwise, keep a check right here to our weather blog page for updates. Also, check out our television channel for a crawl and map for any severe weather updates. Have a great evening!
WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott