Here comes the sun! Monday – 4:45pm Update

“Here Comes the Sun Little Darling”… After the stormy afternoon, this Beatles song comes to mind. It’s amazing how fast our weather has changed this afternoon. We had severe storms in the Tuscaloosa area less than 2 hours ago. Here’s our view of Tuscaloosa now, with the sun breaking through the clouds. With some high level clouds in the area, we will have a very nice sunset in west and central Alabama in an hour or so. Be sure to scroll down for an update on your forecast. Have a great day!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Severe T-storm Warning for Perry County until 5PM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
439 PM CST MON FEB 28 2011

ALC001-047-105-282300-/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-110228T2300Z/
DALLAS AL-AUTAUGA AL-PERRY AL-439 PM CST MON FEB 28 2011

…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL PERRY…WESTERN AUTAUGA AND NORTHERN DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CST…

AT 435 PM CST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF VALLEY GRANDE…MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…  BURNSVILLE…GARDNER ISLAND…MULBERRY…BILLINGSLEY…VIDA  JUNCTION…AUTAUGAVILLE…BARRETT CREEK…VALLEY CREEK JUNCTION…  PLANTERSVILLE AND DAWSON MILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY…IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE…SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Monday Afternoon Forecast Discussion – 4 PM

After today’s severe weather threat, the rest of the forecast is looking a little more settled; atleast until we get to the weekend. Temperatures will be a little cooler tomorrow, with a high between 64 and 67. Skies will become sunny tomorrow, with a north breeze at 5 to 10 mph. After a cool Wednesday morning, a nice warming trend is back in store, with highs back in the lower 70s. A few extra clouds will likely swing by on Wednesday and early Thursday, but they will come and go, as more sun is likely by Thursday afternoon.

Temperatures will remain in the lower 70s for highs through the first half of the weekend before another storm system approaches our area. Showers and storms become a good bet on Saturday, with some strong storms being possible. Model data is rather inconsistent with this next feature, so we’ll have to keep an eye on any surprises over the next day or two.

Some cooler air looks to arrive on Sunday and Monday, as highs return into the 60s. It’s possible that temperatures fall into the 50s on Sunday, but that looks unlikely at this point. Skies will become mostly sunny again by early next week.

Be sure to join me today at 4, 5, 6 and 10 on WVUA-TV for the latest on your forecast. Have a great day!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Severe Weather Is Moving East – Monday Update at 3:05PM

The severe weather threat is ending over west Alabama, where drier conditions are filtering into the state. A cold front is moving into Tuscaloosa now, with a broken line of strong to severe storms just ahead of the front. The severe weather threat is now over for the city of Tuscaloosa. A tornado watch is in place for everyone until 7pm tonight, but the watch will be trimmed back from west to east, as the front continues to move through our area. The storms should be to Centreville, Marion and Demopolis by 3:45pm. Expect the possibility of strong winds, large hail and an isolated tornado. The tornado threat is much lower over central Alabama, but the chance is still there. Once the storms move through your area, the severe weather threat will quickly diminish.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Severe T-storm Warning for Bibb and Shelby until 4PM

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 259 PM CST MON FEB 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…  NORTHERN BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA… SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 400 PM CST

* AT 254 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED  ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM IRONDALE TO BEVILLE LOCK AND DAM…AND  MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE… HELENA…PELHAM…ALABASTER…CHELSEA…MONTEVALLO…CALERA…
  COLUMBIANA AND WILSONVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES…INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 228 THROUGH 247…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY…IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED…ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE…SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 3:15 pm

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
232 PM CST MON FEB 28 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
  JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…
  TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 231 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
  ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST JEFFERSON TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  BRYANT DENNY STADIUM…AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
  HUEYTOWN…GARDENDALE…FULTONDALE…FAIRFIELD…BIRMINGHAM…
  BESSEMER…PINSON-CLAY-CHALKVILLE AND HOMEWOOD.

THIS INCLUDES…
INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 250 THROUGH 282…
INTERSTATE 459 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 33…
US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 81 THROUGH 91…
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 62 THROUGH 140…
INTERSTATE 59 EXIT NUMBERS 130 THROUGH 143…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY…IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED…ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE…SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

Tornado Watch Until 7PM For all of Central Alabama

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 3  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 130 PM EST MON FEB 28 2011
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA
          NORTHWEST GEORGIA
          WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
          UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
          SOUTHERN MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 800 PM EST.
  
   TORNADOES…HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE  AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF HICKORY NORTH CAROLINA TO 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA.  FOR  A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCh  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
  
   REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 31. WATCH NUMBER 31 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 130  PM EST. CONTINUE…WW 32…
  
   DISCUSSION…STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE  AFTERNOON ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ACROSS MIDDLE TN…AND IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN MS/WRN  TN/WRN KY.  THE STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
  AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS SE TN/AL/NW GA PER THE 18Z BMX SOUNDING.  FARTHER N…STORMS IN ERN TN WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO NW NC…ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION THAT CROSSED INTO VA.  INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN AREAS FARTHER SW…BUT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG…AND THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR  EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON…CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR SYSTEM WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF SPIN UPS ALONG THE  BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
  
WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Tornado Watch Until 1pm For Areas North of Tuscaloosa – Monday Update

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 31
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  700 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          NORTHERN ALABAMA
          FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS
          NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
          MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
          FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 700 AM UNTIL 200  PM EST.
  
   TORNADOES…HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF  CROSSVILLE TENNESSEE TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GREENWOOD  MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
  
   REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 28…WW 29…WW 30…
  
   DISCUSSION…COMPLEX STORM EVOLUTION IS ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF POTENT  MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK MOVING  THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU.  AMBIENT AIR MASS IS WARM AND RATHER MOIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO  CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  AREA VWPS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG LOW  AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS REGION WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2.  AS SUCH…THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED
 SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.
  
   AVIATION…TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND  GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.  MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Severe Weather is Likely on this Monday… Updated at 4am Monday

Here’s the latest map from the Storm Prediction Center. They have placed all of Alabama under a slight risk of severe weather, where the threat of large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes exist today. A moderate risk of severe weather is in place over the Tennessee Valley, where several tornadoes are likely. I think the best bet for tornadoes is north of Tuscaloosa, but an isolated tornado or two is still possible as far south as Linden.

Be severe weather aleart today, as the chance increases late this morning and into the early afternoon hours. I think the best chance of severe weather will happen after 11am, with severe weather ending after 4pm in our eastern counties. Severe weather can throw us a few curve balls, and we may be dealing with one today. A weak surface low has developed over northwest Arkansas this morning. If this suface low keeps organizing and moves into Tennessee this afternoon, it will bring more wind shear this afternoon. That could enhance the chance of rotating storms around here. We’ll be watching that close! Stay with WVUA as we continue to watch this.

As discussed in the post below, a cap has developed and will keep things settled until the cold front gets here. This will prevent any severe weather from happening until after 10am or so. This will allow time for the surface to heat and the atmosphere to become more and more unstable, which will increase our threat of large hail and damaging winds. I’ll have more updates on here later this morning.

Have a great morning!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott

Severe Weather Update – Sunday at 10:30 PM

I’ve got some better news in terms of our severe weather threat for tomorrow. The new soundings are out, and a strong cap is in place. A cap basically keeps convection from naturally forming, as it acts as a block in the atmosphere. Since the cap is a bit stronger than previously expected, we aren’t expecting any storms through the night and into the morning hours tomorrow. A few showers will be around, but that’s about it. With a cap this strong, the only way we can break through it is with a strong lifting mechanism such as a front. That being said, I don’t expect storms to make it in here during the early morning hours, as previously thought. This is a good and a bad thing.

This is good because the environment will be much more favorable for tornadoes during the morning hours, due to the high level of wind shear in place. The stronger wind shear will be long gone once the front gets here. If the storms aren’t here when the good wind shear is, the threat of tornadoes goes down.

This is bad because the atmosphere will get more unstable due to more sunshine and warmer temperatures. Once the front arrives, storms will be much more likely to produce large hail. In-fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to get a few reports of hail the size of golf balls or a little larger.

Storms will be isolated or scattered in nature, so not everyone will see severe weather. If you get underneath one of these severe storms, expect the threat of large hail and damaging winds. Eventhough wind shear will be lower, I still can’t rule out a tornado or two.  I think the main threat of tornadoes will be well north of Alabama.

If any tornado warnings are issued for our immediate area, be sure to join me on WVUA-TV for live tornado coverage. Otherwise, keep a check right here to our weather blog page for updates. Also, check out our television channel for a crawl and map for any severe weather updates. Have a great evening!

WVUA Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott