Snow Looking More Likely Christmas Day… Wednesday Update 9:45 PM

I thought this was very interesting from the NWS in Birmingham. They issued a Special Weather Statement for all of central Alabama. This includes, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Demopolis, Linden, Selma, Montgomery and all points around.

Here’s the statement:.

..SNOW POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT…

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS…BRINGING THE THREAT OF SNOW TO MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA…GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE HAS STEADILY INCREASED THAT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL EXPERIENCE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT SOME POINT DURING THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT…TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS DAY AND EVENING. AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN WITH THE SYSTEM…THE EXPECTED CHANGEOVER WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE AND STEADILY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY…CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO SUNSET.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST INFORMATION…MANY AREAS WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER…MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THIS FORECAST…AND CERTAINLY THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS…TIMING AND PLACEMENT…AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE STILL LARGE AND LOOMING QUESTIONS. THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AS NEW INFORMATION IS INTRODUCED…THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE UPDATED.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Snow on Chrismas? Wednesday Evening Forecast Update – 5:30 PM

A good Wednesday to you! Our forecast includes some big changes over the next 4 days, with snow being possible on Christmas Day. Temperatures will be near or below average over the next couple of days, with cool air returning to Alabama. Highs will top out near 51 on Thursday and 56 on Friday.

If you have travel plans on Christmas Eve, our weather is looking dry and cool. The Christmas storm has slowed down a bit, and won’t arrive until the daylight hours on Saturday. Cold air will move in as the precipitation enters Alabama. As a gulf low develops and moves into northern Florida, this will put much of central Alabama in a favorable setup for some snow. Right now, we don’t expect a major snow storm or any major accumulations. Some parts of Alabama could get a dusting of snow, but at this point, it will be hard to tell who gets what. Snow forecasts in Alabama are very hard to put together, as any little change could mean the difference between rain and snow. We will start off with mostly rain, but snow will be soon to follow for our northern counties. The rain/snow line should be close to I-20/59 by lunch and over extreme south Alabama by mid-afternoon. Temperatures will fall through the day on Saturday, with temperatures getting close to freezing by sunset. With wet roads, there is some concern of icy roads Saturday night. Snow showers and snow flurries are still a possibility through Sunday, but no accumulations are expected with Sunday’s flurries. Temperatures will stay in the 30s all day on Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday will remain cold, with highs in the 40s and lows in the upper teens. Sunshine returns on Monday and Tuesday. After an active weekend, our weather goes quiet next week.

Be sure to join me tonight at 6 and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great day!

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

White Christmas History – 4:20pm

Here’s the white Chrismas History from the NWS in Birmingham….

 Birmingham area

• For Birmingham, where nearly 100 years of weather records exist, there has never been a White Christmas in the classic sense.
• Perhaps the closest resemblance to a White Christmas in Birmingham was December, 1985. Flurries falling on Christmas Eve and early Christmas morning lightly dusted some areas, but snow was not deep enough to measure.
• Eight other trace snowfall events occurring in 1961, 1963, 1966, 1980, 1989, 1990, 1993, and 1995 were reported at the Birmingham International Airport on either December 24th or 25th.
• Weather records show that 5.5 inches of snow fell at the city office on December 22, 1929. On December 24th, there was still 2.5 inches of snow on the ground at 7 PM. However, most of the snow melted Christmas Day when the temperature climbed to 51 degrees.

Montgomery area

• For Montgomery, there has not been a White Christmas since 1919. The closest Montgomery has come to a White Christmas was in 1962 when a trace of snow was observed on December 24th. However, a near miss occurred in 1935 when 1.4 inches of snow fell on December 21-22.

Tuscaloosa area

• Tuscaloosa has only reported two trace snowfall events in 1962 and 1985 on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Anniston area

• Anniston has reported a total of seven trace snowfall events in 1963, 1970, 1985, 1989, 1990, 1993, and 1995 on either December 24th or 25th, but has never seen a true White Christmas.

 

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Source: NWS Birmingham

Snow on Christmas Day? Wednesday Morning Udpate – 11:20am

A good Wednesday morning to you! There’s a lot of talk in town about a Christmas Day snow storm. First of all, we all need to set back and take a deep breath. I know a lot of you would be very excited to see snow on Christmas Day, including myself. What I don’t want to do is get your hopes up, when we’re still 3 days out. If you’ve been here in Alabama for a long period of time, you know how winter weather forecasting goes. Sometimes, it’s the day of the event when we are watching radar trends and still trying to figure out exactly what’s going to happen.

Ok, so here’s the deal… A storm-system that is hammering southern California and the southern Rockies right now will be moving on shore later today and tonight. This feature will move into the Texas/Oklahoma area Friday morning, and will dive southeastward. This is a southern branch of the jetsream feature, and it’s looking likely that the northern and southern branch will merge somewhere over the southeast. This will spark the rapid development of a surface low in the northern Gulf of Mexico, and in a place that is favorable for central Alabama snow.  In-fact, a major snow is possible as the low bombs out up the eastern seaboard. Models are coming into better agreement of a decent snow across the deep south, which may include areas between I 20/59 and HWY 80. There is still a lot of new data needed before we can tell you exactly how much snow will fall and where that snow will fall. Right now, it looks like a swath of snow will move across all of central Alabama during the day on Christmas. As thermal profiles start above freezing for several thousand feet, it’s likely that many of us will start off with light rain Saturday morning, with a change to snow as we get closer to lunch.  Light snow is possible through the mid-afternoon hours across west Alabama and sunset across east Alabama.

Historically, we have never had a white Christmas, which would make an accumulating snow a historic storm. Even if we see a minor inch of snow, it would break the record snowfall for that day. In 1985, some flurries dusted the ground white on Christmas morning, but that was not deep enough to measure.

Again, I will warn you that data will change some between now and Christmas. It is looking more like snow on Christmas Day, so you need to keep an eye on the latest right here. I’ll be on WVUA-TV tonight at 5, 6 and 10 to give you the latest.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott