West Alabama Forecast for Thursday, September 16

West Alabama Weather: A weak frontal boundary will move across Alabama Thursday bringing a few clouds and one or two isolated showers to North and Central Alabama.  We will still see a pleasant start to the morning with temps in the middle to upper 60′s.  During the day Thursday, look for a mix of sunshine and clouds as the front moves through.  By Friday, drier air will filter into West Alabama.  This will give us lower humidity values and overnight lows back in the 60 – 65 degree range for the next several days.  However, afternoon temps will remain warm with highs reaching the lower to middle 90′s through the next 7 days.

Meteorologist Jon Mason

Wednesday Afternoon Weather Discussion – 4:40 PM

A good Wednesday Afternoon to you! A few showers have popped up this afternoon over southwest and central Alabama. This is in response to an increase in moisture values from the south. The lower humidity will gradually be replaced with higher humidity on Thursday. This will be just ahead of a cold front that will be responsible for lower humidity days. Highs this afternoon have managed to reach the middle 90s in many neighborhoods. Temperatures have leveled off and will gradually cool this evening. Lows tonight will return into the lower 60s, as we continue comfortable nights. A few extra clouds can be expected tonight and on Thursday. A stray shower can’t be ruled out Thursday, but rain chances are generally below 20%. Skies will become partly cloudy.

Once the cold front moves in on Friday, we’ll enjoy another refreshing airmass over the weekend. While there will not be much of a temperature variation behind the front, we will notice a pop of drier air. Lows will remain in the lower 60s, but the afternoon highs will be rather hot. Highs will top out in the 92 to 95 degree range for the remainder of the weekend.

Next week continues rather settled, with mostly sunny skies each day and low humidity. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 90s. Rain chances remain at 0% for the beginning of next week.

The tropics are very active, with 3 named storms happening right now. Tropical Storm Karl is over the Yucatan Peninsula and is weakening. Karl will move into the southwest Gulf of Mexico and become a hurricane before moving into northern Mexico over the weekend. Hurricane Igor is still a major, Category 4, hurricane. Igor is moving directly towards Bermuda and could cause serious devastation on the island this weekend. We’ll be watching that storm close! Also, major hurricane Julia is moving westward in the Atlantic. Julia will move out to sea before reaching land.

Our pattern we’re in has supported re-curving storms for the majority of the season, and there are indications of that pattern changing over the next week or two. Since we’re in the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, we’ll have to keep an eye out on future storms.

Be sure to check us out on our main website at wvuatv.com… click weather. We’ve got numerous weather updates and links for you. Also, there’s lots of tropical information on there, including tropical satellite loops.

Click here for FACEBOOK Updates

Click here for TWITTER Updates

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Tropical Storm Karl Is Over Land… Wednesday 4:15 PM

KARL IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR INDICATE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION…BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THERE ARE NO OBSERVATION AVAILABLE NEAR THE CORE…AND THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/13.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE…WITH THE HWRF INDICATING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION ON THE LEFT.  SEVERAL OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST KARL TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO…AND ALSO FORECAST A TURN TO SOUTH OF WEST MOTION NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS BOTH OF THESE POSSIBILITIES…WITH THE NEW TRACK BEING SIMILAR TO…BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN…THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 36 HR.

KARL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HR.  ONCE THE CENTER REACHES WATER…THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HWRF…WHILE FORECASTING STRENGTHENING…HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT KARL AT LESS THAN HURRICANE STRENGTH.  GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT…THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KARL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  THE FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT…BUT KARL COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN THAT BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HR FORECAST POINTS.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Hurricane Igor is Moving Towards Bermuda… Wednesday 4 PM

INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT IGOR IS MAINTAINING ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION…WITH INNER CORE CONVECTION MORE VIGOROUS THAN EARLIER. HOWEVER…VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IGOR IS EXPERIENCING IS STILL OCCURRING. A DISTINCT BUT PARTIAL INNER EYEWALL IS EVIDENT AND AN OUTER EYEWALL NOW AT 30-40 NM RADIUS SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY CONTRACTING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AT 5.5 AND 6.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB…RESPECTIVELY…WHILE THE LATEST 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE IS CLOSE TO 6.0. THESE ESTIMATES ARE THE BASIS FOR KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FACTORS THAT COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF IGOR DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ANY CHANGES IN INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE RELATED TO INNER CORE DYNAMICS FOR WHICH PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. IN 3-4 DAYS…GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR…AND IGOR SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS BY SHOWING A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED…WITH THE FORECAST STILL INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM AFTER THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE ENDS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MOTION…AND THE LATEST ESTIMATE IS 295/07. IGOR IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND IS GRADUALLY ENTERING A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD STEER IGOR ON A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. DURING THIS TIME…SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON IGOR. HOWEVER… DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES IN ABOUT 4-5 DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE RECURVATURE. THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL HAVE BEEN INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE FEATURE AND A SHARPER RECURVATURE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ON THE OTHER HAND…THE UKMET…ECMWF…AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE HAD A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THAT COULD DELAY RECURVATURE AND ALLOW FOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE AND IS VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS…CONTINUING TO SHOW IGOR PASSING CLOSE TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Hurricane Julia… Wednesday 4 PM

THE EYE OF JULIA HAS BEEN APPARENT INTERMITTENTLY IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.  A 1912 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME TILT TO THE CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL EYE…DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  JULIA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT…BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS THAT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY.  THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.  AFTER 48 HOURS…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW JULIA MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR. A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT TIME. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3-5…BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH WEAKENS THE JULIA VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  DURING THIS TIME…THE FORWARD SPEED OF JULIA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE.  BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS…THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN JULIA AND THE AZORES ISLANDS.  THEREAFTER…JULIA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD…THEN NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE IGOR TO THE WEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS CYCLE.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Latest Weather Webcast – Wendesday at 2 PM

Igor From Space… Wednesday 11am

Check out this image from NASA yesterday afternoon, as Igor was becoming a monster in the Atlantic. Click on the image to get a larger view and a look down into the eye of Igor… Truly a powerful Storm.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion – 10:45 AM

Good Wednesday morning! Our local weather remains quiet, with cool starts to each day and hot afternoons. A cold front is on the way, but it looks to have little impact on our weather. Dry conditions continue to take over, so we’ve backed off on the idea of a few showers on Friday. As the front slips in from the north, it will have very limited moisture to work with, so don’t expect rain. A few extra clouds on Thursday and Friday will be all that is noticed. Skies return to sunny for the rest of the weekend.

This afternoon will be rather hot, with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Heat index won’t be much of a factor due to the dry atmosphere. Temperatures tonight will return into the lower and middle 60s. We can expect clear skies and comfortable conditions. Thursday will feature another big warm-up, with temperatures returning into the lower to middle 90s. An upper level ridge of high pressure will keep our weather quite over the coming days. The ridge has been in a perfect place to deflect tropical systems away from Alabama and much of the US coastline. Later down the road, models are in better agreement that the ridge shifts eastward, which could mean some different weather around here.

This weekend and early next week will remain a carbon copy of what’s happening now. We can expect a good supply of sunshine each day, with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Temperatures at night continue very nice, with lower 60s expected. There are no signs of organized rain over the next 7 days, which isn’t good news for the late season farmers. The farmers were hurt with dry weather to start off the spring growing season, and now the fall crops are in trouble as we introduce a dry late season as well. Also, it’s getting that time of the year to start preparing fields for hunting season. With the dry pattern we’re in right now, it’s a good idea to wait a while before planting. Hopefully, we’ll get some good rain in here soon!

As for the tropics, we have lots of tropical activity, with tropical storm Karl, Major Hurricane Igor and Major Hurricane Julia. All of these features are staying well away from Alabama, but over the next couple of weeks, we’ll deal with a pattern change. The ridge shifts eastward, which will open the door for tropical systems to move towards the US Mainland. In-fact, some of our longer range data has a hurricane moving into the Gulf of Mexico. I’m not forecasting that to happen just yet, but I will tell you that the door may become open for activity to move closer to us. We still have a long way to go before the tropical threats are gone. This is a very active season, but we’ve been fortunate due to the number of storms turning north before impacting the US. This is again due to the placement of the ridge/trough pattern. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the tropics over the next couple of weeks…

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV at 4, 5, 6, and 10 for more on your local weather, and check us out online on our main webpage at wvuatv.com. Click the weather tab and check out the new info on the site. There are numerous tropical images and loops. Also, local and national weather information can be found on the main weather page. Have a great day!

Click here for FACEBOOK Updates

Click here for TWITTER Updates

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Karl Just Made Landfall… Wednesday 10 AM

THE CENTER OF KARL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 1245 UTC.  BEFORE LANDFALL… AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 991 MB WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM RELIABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 50-55 KT.  BASED ON THIS…THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.= DATA FROM THE RADAR IN BELIZE CITY SHOWED THAT KARL WAS DEVELOPING AN EYE AT LANDFALL…BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO OTHER EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST IT REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER THE HURRICANE HUNTER DEPARTED.

KARL HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS… WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/12.  KARL REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE…WITH THE GFS…GFDL…AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE ECMWF…UKMET…CANADIAN…AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL CAMPS AND LIE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.

KARL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ONCE THE CENTER REACHES WATER…THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST…CALLING FOR KARL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.  KARL SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER ITS SECOND LANDFALL AND DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO BY 120 HR.

Click here for FACEBOOK Updates

Click here for TWITTER Updates

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Igor Still Cat 4… Tuesday 10 AM

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR WAS DETERIORATING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS…WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING AND A DRY SLOT EVIDENT NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL MICROWAVE OVERPASSES ALSO INDICATED A FURTHER EROSION OF THE INNER EYEWALL AND THE FORMATION OF AN OUTER EYEWALL AT ABOUT 60-70 NMI RADIUS. SINCE ABOUT 1300 UTC…THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME EVIDENCE OF A RE- ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC ARE 5.5 AND 6.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB…RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THESE ESTIMATES…THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY NEGATIVE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS THAT COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. INSTEAD…FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TO BE GOVERNED BY INTERNAL DYNAMICS FOR WHICH PREDICTABILITY IS POOR. IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 DAYS…GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT IGOR SHOULD ENCOUNTER AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED IN THE SHORT TERM BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND. SHOULD THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE END DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO…THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING COMMENCES LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE…300/07…AND THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  IGOR IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD GRADUALLY ENTER A LARGE WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER IGOR NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD… POSSIBLY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  DURING THIS TIME…A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON IGOR.  HOWEVER…IN ABOUT 4-5 DAYS…DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE RECURVATURE.  THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THIS FEATURE…WHICH COULD AFFECT HOW CLOSE IGOR PASSES TO BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY…CLOSE TO BUT JUST RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott