Tropical Depression 10 Forms... Monday Morning 12:45 AM

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEING DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING.  CURVED BANDS ARE
READILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE…AND A 2340 UTC WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5…25 KT…AND THIS WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR.  ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO…ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE LEFT TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS…AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS MODEL.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

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