West Alabama Forecast for Friday, October 1

Another day with beautiful sunshine in West Alabama and afternoon temps in the low to middle 80′s.  Heading into the weekend, we’ll continue to see sunny skies during the day and a high on Saturday near 80 degrees.  Gameday weather for Bama/Florida will be ideal.  Kickoff temperature will be around 70 degrees with temps falling through the 60′s and into the upper 50′s by the end of the game.  Overnight Saturday another frontal system will move through during the evening, giving us another shot of cool air. By Sunday morning we’ll see the cooler air in full force with temps in the upper 40′s.  Sunday and Monday afternoon will be 10 degrees below normal with highs only in the middle 70′s.

Meteorologist Jon Mason

Alabama Football Gameday Forecast… Updated Thursday @ 11:50am

The forecast for Saturday is looking great for Alabama football. Skies will remain mostly sunny though the day, with a high near 80 degrees. A strong cold front will be making it through the state Saturday night, but there is limited moisture to work with, so don’t expect any rain. It will feel nice during the day, but once the sun sets, temperatures will quickly fall into the lower 70s. We’ll forecast a kickoff temperature of 70 degrees. At halftime, temperatures will likely be in the middle 60s. And, as the game ends, temperatures will fall into the upper 50s. With a light north breeze, this will make conditions feel a bit chilly.

Be sure to scroll down for a full update on your forecast. Have a great day!

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WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Thursday Morning Forecast Discussion – 11am

Good Thursday morning to you! Our local forecast is looking great over the next couple of days, but we have some chilly weather ahead. It’s amazing how fast our weather can change. Last week, we had temperatures in the triple digits for the majority of central Alabama. This week, we’re struggling to reach 80 degrees for a high. We have experienced a major pattern change, and it looks like we will continue this for some time. For much of the summer, a ridge has been centered over the southeastern US, which has kept us very hot and dry. Now, the ridge has shifted east and is centered over the Atlantic. Another ridge has developed over the western US, which is causing a blocking pattern. This means our weather will remain like this for a while.

A weak cold front will move through the state tonight, and will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Highs on Friday and Saturday will struggle to reach the lower 80s. Lows will dip into the upper 40s for Saturday morning. The gameday forecast is looking good, but cool. A north breeze will make conditions feel a bit cool. Once the sun sets, temperatures will drop like a rock. Expect a kickoff temperature around 69, with temperatures in the upper 50s to end the game. If you have outdoor plans during the afternoon, conditions will feel great, but it’s after sunset when it will get chilly.

Another cold front moves in Saturday night, and this front will mean business. Expect much cooler weather for the rest of the weekend and into next week. Highs on Sunday will likely stay below 75 degrees, with temperatures at night reaching the lower 40s. There will be limited moisture along the front, so don’t expect any rain. Monday will be another cool day, with a high temperature around 75. A breezy north wind will keep us chilly for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures gradually warm to around 80 by Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures at night continue I the 40s through Wednesday morning.

The tropics have calmed down a bit, but there is still an area of concern in the central Atlantic. Most data turns this storm up the east coast down the road, but we’ll have plenty of time to watch this feature. The next name on the list will be Otto.

We’ll have more updates on the blog today, plus, you can watch us live on WVUA-TV today at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great day!

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WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Friday Night Football Forecast… Updated Thursday 10:10am

Friday will become a rather breezy day, as the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole move up the eastern seaboard and high pressure settles west of us. The reason we have wind is due to a pressure gradient. The atmosphere wants to be in an equilibrium state, so air will flow towards low pressure and away from high pressure. As the low moves up the east coast, this will give us a north flow, which will set us up with a shot of cooler and drier air just in time for high school football.

If you have plans at the local high school football games Friday night, we’re looking great! It will get rather chilly as the evening progresses, so be sure to dress for cooler temperatures. At 7pm, temperatures will fall into the lower 70s. By the time the games end around 10 or so, expect temperatures to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. With a light breeze, conditions will feel a bit cooler. Skies will remain clear Friday night.

I’ll have a weather discussion on here shortly this morning. Have a great day!

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WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

Next Up Is Otto… Tropical Low Could Become Otto Over The Next Few Days… Thursday 9:50am Update

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER…ASSOCIATED WITH TWO TROPICAL WAVES…IS CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA ARE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED…BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE…30 PERCENT…OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

West Alabama Forecast for Thursday, Sept. 30

Thursday Forecast:  More sunshine for West Alabama this Thursday with afternoon highs back close to the middle 80′s.  Overnight lows will stay chilly with temps in the low to mid 50′s.  Gameday weather for Saturday’s Bama/Florida game will be almost ideal.  The 7pm kickoff with give us cool temps in the 60′s to start the game, falling into the upper 50′s by the end of the contest.  Late Saturday evening a front will move through West Alabama bringing another shot of cool air.  Sunday we could see afternoon highs in the mid 70′s.  Monday morning may be the coolest morning we’ve seen in a while with overnight lows in the mid 40′s expected.

Meteorologist Jon Mason

Wednesday Morning Forecast Discussion – 10:14am

Good Wednesday morning! Our forecast includes some fall-like weather over the next 7 days, with temperatures staying below average. It’s amazing the difference a week makes. Last week, temperatures were in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Since Sunday, temperatures have stayed at or below 80 degrees for highs. A big ridge has setup over the west, and trough over the east. A fairly deep trough has positioned itself over the east, and looks to stay that way over the next 7 days. In-fact, a reinforcing shot of cooler air will make it feel more like winter late in the weekend and early next week.

Temperatures this afternoon will likely reach the lower 80s, with maximum sunshine. Dry air in place will keep conditions feeling cool through the afternoon hours; especially in the shade. A north breeze will continue through this afternoon. We’ll reach the lower 50s again tonight, with clear skies. A few of the cooler spots north of Tuscaloosa could make it into the upper 40s. As tropical storm Nicole moves up the east coast, we’ll notice an increasing wind. Winds will gust to 15 mph out of the north, due to the pressure gradient between Nicole and a high pressure to the west. Conditions will remain dry through Friday. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 80s on Thursday. A reinforcing shot of cooler air moves in on Friday, and temperatures will back down to around 80. Lows at night will fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s for Saturday and Sunday mornings.

A strong cold front moves in Saturday evening. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 60s after sunset, with a breezy north wind. This will make for a chilly end to the Alabama game on Saturday. Sunday and Monday will likely stay in the lower and middle 70s. The chill-down will really be noticed at night, as lows fall into the lower 40s Monday morning. In-fact, a few of the colder valleys will get close to 40. Sunny skies can be expected on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures stay below 80 through Tuesday.

Be sure to join us on WVUA-TV tonight at 4, 5, 6 and 10 for the latest on your forecast. Have a great day!

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WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

TD # 16 Becomes Nicole… Wednesday 10am

BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE YESTERDAY.  ALSO…THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHIP…BUOY…AND LAND OBSERVATIONS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE SURFACE DATA…THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM NICOLE. 

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NICOLE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING.  SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE CORE CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS…WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL OR NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY.  THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…AND IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS THE EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMES THE DOMINANT EVENT.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED.  GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SCENARIO…HOWEVER… UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

BASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK…ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM NICOLE IS HEAVY RAINFALL…ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF JAMAICA AND CUBA.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

TD # 16 Is Moving Towards Florida… Flooding Rains Likely There… Wednesday Update 9 AM

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY…DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI…ALONG WITH RADAR RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALSO…AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLYING BETWEEN FLORIDA AND CUBA HAS INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 33 KT IN UNCONTAMINATED SFMR DATA ABOUT 80-120 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER…WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN SEEN NOTED IN PRIOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECON DATA. THE LARGEST DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY VALUES DETECTED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 40-44 KT BETWEEN 6000-12000 FT. THIS INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION IS ON TRACK AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/12. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BEEN STEADILY BACKING AROUND FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIG SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED
ALONG 85W…THE FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACCELERATE THE DEPRESSION TO THE  NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY…AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS…THE STRONG BACKING FLOW PATTERN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE FORECAST TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN OR LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE  ENVELOPE. AS A RESULT…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 30 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT…THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND BE COMPLETE BY 36-48 HR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 48 HOURS…THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER U. S. BAROCLINIC OVER THE NORTHEASTERN  UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

WVUA Meteorologist Richard Scott

West Alabama Forecast for Wednesday, Sept. 29

The wonderful fall weather continues in West Alabama this Wednesday.  We will start the morning in the upper 40′s in many locations…with others in the lower 50′s.  Either way, Wednesday will get off to a chilly start.  Afternoon highs will climb back into the lower 80′s.  Not much change in the weather forecast through Saturday with highs during  the day in the lower to middle 80′s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50′s.  Another frontal system should move through the area late Saturday. We’re not looking for any rain along the front, just a re-enforcing shot of dry, cool air.  By Sunday and Monday, look for afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70′s and overnight lows in the upper 40′s to lower 50′s.

Meteorologist Jon Mason