Sunday Evening Weather Update; 8:15 p.m.

Gustav Forecast Cone

Hanna Forecast Cone

A good Sunday evening to you! The weather is beginning to go downhill for much of south Louisiana and Mississippi, as tropical rain bands move into the area. There have been reports of a 44 mph wind gust in Gulfport, MS. Closer to home, there was an estimated wind gust close to 70 MPH in Elmore County, which is just north of Montgomery. Trees were also reported down in that area. So far, there has been no word on whether or not that was a tornado. That storm is moving westward through Chilton County.

The latest advisory has the pressure in Gustav lowering, which is a sign of intensification. It is a category 3 hurricane, with winds of 115 mph. It is not out of the question that it could develop into a category 4 before moving into southeast Louisiana tomorrow morning.

In the Tuscaloosa area, we will see more rain develop and move into the area. With the rain, we will have some breezy conditions, with an isolated tornado warning possible. We will be on the northeast side of Gustav, so that puts us under the risk for some tornadic storms to fire up tomorrow and Tuesday. Much like what we dealt with when Fay moved through, we could see some brief, spin-up tornadoes. Keep an eye to our television station for the latest watches and warnings on our crawl. Also, we will have frequent weather updates on the blog page over the next few days. If a tornado warning is issued for our area, we will break into programming; also, we stream severe weather coverage on Catfish 102.9 fm.

The rain will finally move out Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. Skies will really clear out by then, with highs in the upper 80s. There is still a chance for a stray storm on through the weekend, with mostly sunny skies. We will have a full update tonight at 10 p.m. on our live newscast. Be sure to join us then!

Visit Our Tropical Weather Page By Clicking Here !!!

We know that numerous evacuees from neighboring states may be visiting West Alabama late in the weekend. If you have friends or family evacuating, or if you are an evacuee planning on visiting West Alabama over the weekend, be sure to listen to our partner station “Welcome 103.3 FM” for streaming information on hotels/places to stay. We also provide weather for all of the hotels on the station “Traveln Alabama.” Click here for streaming coverage and plenty information on places stay. If severe weather conditions develop locally you can always count on detailed weather coverage with our partners at Catfish 102.9 FM!

Richard Scott
WVUA-TV’s Weekend Weather Anchor

8 p.m. Advisory on Gustav

700 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

…GUSTAV CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD…TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ABOUT
TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES…
280 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 260 MILES…415 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH…27 KM/HR.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…
GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH…185 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TONIGHT…AND GUSTAV IS
FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220
MILES…350 KM.  DATA FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE AREA COVERED BY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAS EXPANDED…
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF GUSTAV.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA…
AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTLINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 952 MB…28.11 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION…26.9 N…87.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

WVUA-TV’s Richard Scott

4 PM Advisory on Gustav

…GUSTAV MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO…HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD…

AT 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD
ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND
TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF HIGH
ISLAND EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER…INCLUDING THE CITY
OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES…
350 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/HR.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…
GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH…185 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY THEREAFTER…BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES…100 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220
MILES…350 KM.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
ONTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT…WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB…28.26 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.   ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…26.4 N…87.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…957 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

WVUA-TV’s Richard Scott

Sunday Morning Thoughts; 10:57 a.m.

Gustav Forecast Cone

Hanna Forecast Cone

Things are certainly looking grim for our friends in the New Orleans area. Major Hurricane Gustav is churning northwestward across the central Gulf of Mexico. The 11 a.m. advisory has winds of 120 mph. It has weakened some overnight, but is still an extremely dangerous storm. Drier air in the mid levels of the atmosphere has moved into the storm, so some disorganization took place last night. This could keep the storm from strengthening much more, so that would be great news, but as the storm continues to move across the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to regain Category 4 status prior to landfall. The latest track brings Gustav ashore early tomorrow morning, with hurricane forced winds expected as far east as Gulf Shores. There are hurricane warnings in place for the Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana gulf coast. Also, inland tropical storm warnings extend into southwest Alabama. This doesn’t include counties in our viewing area, but don’t be surprised to see winds gusting to tropical storm force over Marengo and Sumter Counties.

Here in the Tuscaloosa area, expect breezy conditions, with winds gusting to 30 mph. We will have some showers banding into the area on Monday and Tuesday. With us being on the northeastern side of the storm, the threat for a few spin-up tornadoes are possible. The damaging winds and flooding rains will be west of Alabama. Places over south Mississippi and Louisiana will see the worst weather. Southern Marengo County could see rainfall totals approaching 1 inch. Again, any track further eastward could greatly change our forecast. Anytime there is a major hurricane in the gulf, expect the unexpected. If anything changes in our forecast, we will be sure to let you know about it. Keep an eye on our blog page and our television station. If warnings pop up Monday and Tuesday, our bug will be shown on the television. Also, if a tornado warning is issued, we will break into programming. Anytime we do severe weather coverage, we simulcast on Catfish 102.9. Be sure to keep it right here for more on Gustav and your latest forecast. Have a great Sunday!

Visit Our Tropical Weather Page By Clicking Here !!!

We know that numerous evacuees from neighboring states may be visiting West Alabama late in the weekend. If you have friends or family evacuating, or if you are an evacuee planning on visiting West Alabama over the weekend, be sure to listen to our partner station “Welcome 103.3 FM” for streaming information on hotels/places to stay. We also provide weather for all of the hotels on the station “Traveln Alabama.” Click here for streaming coverage and plenty information on places stay. If severe weather conditions develop locally you can always count on detailed weather coverage with our partners at Catfish 102.9 FM!

Richard Scott
WVUA-TV’s Weekend Weather Anchor

Saturday Afternoon Weather Discussion; 6:46 p.m.

Gustav Forecast Cone

Hanna Forecast Cone

I hope your Saturday has gone well! The weather over the next few days will depend on the track of Gustav. The center of the storm is crossing Cuba and will be moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of hours. The storm has moved a little quicker than expected over the past 24 hours, so the timing of landfall has changed to midday on Monday. The general track remains to our west, which will put us on the right side of the storm. Even if the center moves ashore over southeastern Louisiana, we will see showers and storms move in from the gulf. Gusty winds can be expected, with winds gusting to tropical storm force over our southwestern counties, such as Marengo and Sumter. Any shift eastward in that track could place Alabama in a risk for stronger winds and heavier rainfall, so be sure to stay with us throughout the weekend as we continue to track Gustav.

The storm is expected to become a Category 5 hurricane, so we won’t take our eyes off the storm until the danger is over. The exact timing and placement of landfall could still change, but the latest track brings Gustav ashore just to the southwest of New Orleans. The Alabama Gulf Coast has been placed under a hurricane watch, so hurricane forced winds are possible for Gulf Shores and Dolphin Island on Monday and Tuesday. Conditions there will begin to deteriorate Sunday night and into Monday morning for that area.

In the Tuscaloosa area, there is a good chance for rain on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. With clouds around, our temperatures will remain in the middle 80s. Also, there is a chance we could see a few spin-up tornadoes early next week. There will be a lot of folks out for Labor Day, so you need to keep an eye to the weather incase any warnings are issued. You can check into our blog page and flip to our television channel for our weather bug and crawl. If there are any tornado warnings, we will be on continuous coverage until the warnings are gone. Also, we stream continuous severe weather coverage on our local fm radio station; Catfish 102.9.

Also, we are watching Tropical Storm Hanna, which could become a gulf storm by next weekend as well. We will be watching this activity over the next few days for possible impacts in our weather.

Visit Our Tropical Weather Page By Clicking Here !!!

We know that numerous evacuees from neighboring states may be visiting West Alabama late in the weekend. If you have friends or family evacuating, or if you are an evacuee planning on visiting West Alabama over the weekend, be sure to listen to our partner station “Welcome 103.3 FM” for streaming information on hotels/places to stay. We also provide weather for all of the hotels on the station “Traveln Alabama.” Click here for streaming coverage and plenty information on places stay. If severe weather conditions develop locally you can always count on detailed weather coverage with our partners at Catfish 102.9 FM!

Richard Scott
WVUA-TV’s Weekend Weather Anchor

Gustav Is Now A Category 4 Hurricane! 1:00 p.m.

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH…230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.  A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES.  THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

WVUA-TV’s Richard Scott

Saturday Morning Update; 9:04 a.m.

Gustav Forecast Cone

Hanna Forecast Cone

Good morning! Gustav is now a major hurricane, with winds of 120 mph. It rapidly organized last night and is still gaining strength; it could become a category 4 or even 5 hurricane later today. There is still a lot of uncertainty in its future path. Over the past few hours, Gustav has been moving north-northwest, which throws more uncertainties into the forecast. If it continues to take this path, then the landfall may be shifted a little eastward. This is bad news for New Orleans and possibly the Alabama gulf Coast.

As of 8 a.m., the track brings Gustav ashore early Tuesday morning over southeastern Louisiana. Again, this could change. If it stays on the projected path, we will see some breezy conditions and some showers and storms banding in from the gulf. With the placement of the low, there is a threat for a few tornadoes on Tuesday and Wednesday. A ridge north of us is forecasted to block Gustav from moving in our direction, but if the ridge weakens any, we could see some major changes. Be sure to stay with us as we continue to monitor the latest developments on Gustav.

Visit Our Tropical Weather Page By Clicking Here !!!

We know that numerous evacuees from neighboring states may be visiting West Alabama late in the weekend. If you have friends or family evacuating, or if you are an evacuee planning on visiting West Alabama over the weekend, be sure to listen to our partner station “Welcome 103.3 FM” for streaming information on hotels/places to stay. We also provide weather for all of the hotels on the station “Traveln Alabama.” Click here for streaming coverage and plenty information on places stay. If severe weather conditions develop locally you can always count on detailed weather coverage with our partners at Catfish 102.9 FM!

Richard Scott
WVUA-TV’s Weekend Weather Anchor

Update on Gustav For Friday Evening

Gustav Forecast Cone

Hanna Forecast Cone

Good afternoon! A few thundershowers have popped up over northern Tuscaloosa County and this activity is drifting southward. We will have the threat for a stray shower or thunderstorm through the evening hours. Otherwise, it will be a partly cloudy tonight, with lows near 70. Tomorrow and Sunday will be partly cloudy days, with a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon hours. Highs will be near 90 degrees.

The big weather story continues to be the tropics. Gustav is now a hurricane and the system is making an impact on the Cayman Islands. The latest forecast cone for Gustav has shifted westward, carrying the system closer to a landfall point near Abbeville, Louisiana. This track would mean a less severity of weather for our area, with only patchy rain and spotty thunderstorms by Tuesday and Wednesday. There is still a bit of uncertainty regarding the track across the Gulf and the upper air pattern. A slight shift eastward shift could mean a large change in our weather, with heavy rain and windy conditions by Tuesday. Therefore, we want to remain on alert for the possibility of inclement weather by Tuesday. Give the current forecast track, tropical storm force conditions could be expected as far east as Gulf Shores on Tuesday. Portions of Dauphin Island are now closed.

Visit Our Tropical Weather Page By Clicking Here !!!

Gustav will be the main weather story through Wednesday and then we may deal with yet another tropical system. Model guidance is having a tough time with Hanna, but it’s not totally out of the question that this system may enter the Gulf. For now, we’re forecasting partly cloudy conditions for Thursday and Friday, with a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm in the afternoon hours.

       We know that numerous evacuees from neighboring states may be visiting West Alabama late in the weekend. If you have friends or family evacuating, or if you are an evacuee planning on visiting West Alabama over the weekend, be sure to listen to our partner station “Welcome 103.3 FM” for streaming information on hotels/places to stay. We also provide weather for all of the hotels on the station “Traveln Alabama.” Click here for streaming coverage and plenty information on places stay. If severe weather conditions develop locally you can always count on detailed weather coverage with our partners at Catfish 102.9 FM!

Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

Update On Gustav/Information for Visitors

The latest official track from NHC has shifted Gustav’s forecast cone west. There is still a large window of uncertainty regarding the precise landfall location. We have created a detailed page with tons of tropical weather and evacuation related links/information. If you have big travel plans, hopefully this information will prove very useful. If the current forecast track holds true, we will have a much better outcome early next week. Also, some of tonights data is quite interesting regarding Hanna. That tropical storm may end up turning southwest by early next week and then become a hurricane. Even though the forecast cone for Gustav has shifted west, I still have to stress that a track closer to our area can’t totally be ruled out at this time. I feel we will be able to gather much more confidence after reviewing the Friday data.

Visit Our Tropical Weather Page By Clicking Here !!! 

The Mobile NWS advises citizens along the Gulf coast to prepare for the possibilities of Gustav impacting the region late Sunday and into Monday. The latest forecast for the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area calls for a good chance of rain on Monday and Tuesday, with a possible thunderstorm. Winds between 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30. Red flag warnings have been posted for the beach.

If you have friends or family evacuating, or if you are an evacuee planning on visiting West Alabama over the weekend, be sure to listen to our partner station “Welcome 103.3 FM” for streaming information on hotels and places to stay. We also provide weather for all of the hotels on the station “Traveln Alabama.” Click here for streaming coverage and plenty information on places stay.

Wes Wyatt
Chief Meteorologist

…GUSTAV MOVING ACROSS JAMAICA…

AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA…FOR THE PROVINCES OF ISLA DE
JUVENTUD…PINAR DEL RIO…LA HABANA…AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES… 25 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 310
MILES…505 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH…9 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK…THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL CROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT…AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WHILE GUSTAV CROSSES
JAMAICA…BUT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY…AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TONIGHT…WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION…18.1 N…76.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB.